With the Iranian and Venezuelan regimes that have squared off against the United States coming under U.S. military pressure and strikes, attention is turning to the next moves of Kim Jong-un, the North Korean Chairperson of the State Affairs Commission. As the United States makes military action a reality, some observers say Kim could rethink talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
On the 7th (local time), CNN reported experts' analyses that Kim, who has been watching recent global dynamics, could weigh the possibility of resuming talks with President Trump.
Chad O'Carroll, publisher of NK News, a U.S. outlet specializing in North Korea, said, "If I were Kim Jong-un, I would feel that talking with Trump in some form this year aligns with the national interest." The interpretation is that, even just to manage the unpredictability of President Trump, it would benefit the North Korean system to set up even a formal channel for dialogue.
In fact, at the 9th Congress of the Workers' Party last month, Kim left room for talks with the United States. He said, "If [the United States] respects the current status of our state and withdraws its hostile policy toward North Korea, there is no reason we cannot get along well with the United States." He hinted at the possibility of conditional talks. Some also predicted that President Trump's visit to China could become a catalyst for U.S.-North Korea dialogue.
In particular, some analysts say the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, may have heightened Kim's sense of crisis. They argue these cases show that leaders of authoritarian regimes confronting the United States are by no means in a safe zone.
It is in the same vein that North Korea's state media recently condemned the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran as an "invasion war" but did not comprehensively cover Khamenei's death. This appears intended not to unduly highlight to North Korean residents the fact that a supreme leader can be removed by external military action.
However, there is considerable counterargument that Kim is in a different position from Iran and Venezuela. North Korea is estimated to already possess dozens of nuclear warheads. Although full verification has not been achieved, it claims to have delivery systems capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, suggesting North Korea's nuclear capability could act as a factor deterring U.S. military action.
On top of this, North Korea maintains a hard-line stance that its status as a nuclear-armed state is irreversible. It has codified the use of nuclear force in law and defined nuclear armament as a core means of regime survival. Since the collapse of the second U.S.-North Korea summit held in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2019, Kim has maintained a cautious approach to negotiations with the United States, making it difficult to be optimistic about resuming talks.
Even so, some believe the Iran and Venezuela cases will offer another lesson for Kim. Both countries have maintained certain strategic frameworks with Russia and China, but at decisive moments they did not prevent U.S. military action. In the end, Kim appears to face a crossroads: whether to continue a hard-line course emphasizing nuclear deterrence, or to engage in limited talks with President Trump, even as a means of securing a safety valve for the regime.