Iran's situation has fallen into fog after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and the election of his second son as successor. With a "hard-line" faction hostile to the United States taking power again, observers say unstable relations could continue between the Iranian regime and the United States, and further, between the regime and the Iranian public.
Iran International, a local Iranian outlet, reported on the 3rd (local time), citing sources, that the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior clerics, elected Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, as Iran's supreme leader. The New York Times (NYT) also cited three anonymous Iranian officials the same day as saying, "After holding a meeting and discussing the matter, senior clerics have coalesced around the slain Khamenei's son as the leading successor."
Like his father, Mojtaba aligns with Iran's hard-line conservative camp, and he has backed crackdowns on opponents of the regime and hard-line policies toward foreign adversaries. He also has close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's most powerful military organization, and reports say IRGC pressure played a role in the process that led to his selection as successor.
From the U.S. perspective, Mojtaba's selection is close to the worst-case scenario. President Trump, in a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said, "The worst thing is that we do all this and someone as bad as the previous person takes power," adding, "That could happen. But we don't want that to happen. We want someone to take power who will set Iran straight for the people." If Mojtaba indeed assumes the position of Iran's supreme leader, tense relations between Iran and the United States are likely to persist for the time being.
The United States had initially had in mind a pro-U.S. figure as Khamenei's successor. In a phone interview with the NYT on the 1st, President Trump, asked who would lead Iran going forward, said, "We have three very good options," adding, "I'm not going to say who they are right now." His reference to the Venezuela case in connection with the strikes on Iran is also taken to mean he hopes a more reform-minded figure, as in Venezuela, will be chosen as the next leader.
However, as the campaign against Iran has continued, the safety of the figures the United States was considering has become uncertain. President Trump said that day, "A lot of the people we had in mind (for the next leadership) are dead," adding, "Some of the group we were thinking about are dead, and there's another group, and according to reports they may also be dead."
He went on, "Forty-nine (senior Iranian leaders) were taken out in the first strike," adding, "I understand there was another strike today related to the new leadership, and that too would have been a significant blow." This appears to refer to Israel's strike that day on the Assembly for the Administration of National Leadership (Assembly of Experts) building in Qom, south of Tehran. However, according to Iran's Fars News Agency, the building was empty at the time.
Observers also raise the possibility of internal backlash in Iran. Iranian political analyst Mehdi Rahmati said, "Mojtaba is well versed in running and coordinating security and military bodies, so for now he is the most realistic choice," but added, "Some citizens will react negatively and strongly to this decision, and that could backfire." In fact, public dissatisfaction with the current government in Iran is significant enough that anti-government protests broke out in January.