China's biggest annual political event, the Two Sessions (Lianghui—the National People's Congress of China and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), is about to open. Starting with the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on Mar. 4, the National People's Congress of China will open on the 5th, and Premier Li Qiang will deliver the government work report. This year will finalize the 15th Five-Year Plan covering 2026–2030, and this Two Sessions is expected to be a watershed for gauging the five-year economic strategy and external stance.
According to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency and others, the Two Sessions is an event encompassing the National People's Congress of China, the legislative body, and the CPPCC, a policy advisory body, and is where the Chinese Communist Party leadership's policy stance is finalized. The growth target, fiscal management direction, defense budget scale, mid-to-long-term development strategy, and external messages are presented comprehensively. With structural challenges piling up, including an economic slowdown, sluggish domestic demand, a property crisis, and declining investment, securing technological leadership, fostering advanced manufacturing, stabilizing supply chains, and strengthening livelihoods are cited as key agenda items. The Two Sessions runs for about a week, and the final results are released sequentially.
◇ Will it hold the 5% growth target
The Highlight of the Two Sessions is Premier Li Qiang's government work report to be released at the opening of the National People's Congress of China on the 5th. It will include this year's gross domestic product (GDP) growth target, fiscal deficit ratio, measures for consumption and real estate, and the defense budget scale. The growth target carries weight as the "ammunition" to drive the Five-Year Plan and as an indicator of the leadership's view of the economy.
China presented a growth target of "around 5%" for 2023–2025 and in fact achieved 5.2%, 5.0%, and 5.0%. However, the slowdown became pronounced in the second half of last year, and with tariff pressure and tech controls from the United States and slumps in domestic demand and real estate overlapping, the outlook for this year is also tough. In fact, according to Citibank data, 13 of 20 provincial governments lowered their growth targets or reduced the lower bound this year. Among them are Guangdong and Zhejiang, China's manufacturing and export hubs.
Even so, considering the mid-to-long-term goal of doubling GDP by 2035 compared with 2019, and that this year is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, there is an outlook that the growth target will be kept at "around 5%." However, there is also talk that the target could be lowered to a 4.5–5% range to reflect economic conditions. Major international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), project growth in the mid-4% range this year.
◇ Purge of Zhang Youxia and others… follow-up steps for the military leadership
Attention is also on the follow-up handling of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Central Military Commissioner Liu Zhenli, who were purged at the start of the year on suspicion of "serious disciplinary and legal violations." The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) in Hong Kong, at a meeting on the 26th just before the Two Sessions, stripped five generals (army general rank), one lieutenant general, and three major generals of the People's Liberation Army of their National People's Congress of China delegate status. It is presumed that Zhang Youxia's and Liu Zhenli's delegate status was also reviewed at this meeting, but the details were not disclosed.
Delegates to the National People's Congress of China have constitutional immunity from criminal prosecution, so the stripping of delegate status is interpreted as effectively the last step toward criminal punishment. Judicial handling of the top military brass is seen as going beyond rooting out corruption to tie in with reasserting control over the military and reorganizing the command structure, and strengthening the "one-person system" centered on President Xi Jinping. With one year left before the 21st Party Congress, which will decide whether Xi secures a fourth term, this Two Sessions could also become a stage to showcase the stability of the power structure at home and abroad.
◇ External messaging ahead of Trump's visit to China also draws attention
With U.S.-China strategic competition continuing, attention is focused on the diplomatic line to be presented at this Two Sessions. With U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled to visit China from Mar. 31 to Apr. 2, China's response stance on tariffs, tech restrictions, and supply chain reorganization is expected to come into clearer view.
China has criticized the United States' "unilateralism" and "interference in internal affairs," while also emphasizing the need to manage bilateral relations stably. At this Two Sessions as well, there is a possibility of a calibrated message that puts forward "mutual respect" and "avoidance of conflict," while making clear that it cannot concede on its core interests.
On Taiwan, it is likely to make its existing position even clearer. It is expected to reaffirm the "one China" principle and adherence to the "1992 consensus," and maintain its opposition to moves toward Taiwan independence and to external interference. However, there is also a possibility that it will pair this with conciliatory signals by simultaneously mentioning expanded economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.