Behind the United States' surprise airstrikes with Israel on Tehran, the capital of Iran, on the 28th local time, appears to be the stalemate in nuclear talks with Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump said in an approximately 8-minute video posted on social media after the strikes that "our goal is to eliminate the imminent Iranian threat to protect the American people," adding, "we will destroy Iran's missiles, completely crush its missile industry, and annihilate its navy."
The United States held three rounds of talks with Iran just this month for nuclear negotiations. However, when Iran ultimately refused at the third round in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 26th to accept the U.S. core demand of dismantling its nuclear program, Washington appears to have resorted to the use of force. Trump's declaration that "they (Iran) rejected every opportunity to abandon their nuclear ambitions" and "we can no longer tolerate this" supports that view.
The United States demanded that Iran roll back uranium enrichment, assessed to have reached the 60% level, to zero (0), and hand over the already enriched 300 kilograms of uranium to the United States. It also insisted not only on dismantling three key Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—but that nuclear abandonment be permanent without a sunset clause.
While the United States has said it prioritizes a diplomatic solution, it also prepared military options in case the talks ended in a no-deal. Recently, it raised military pressure by deploying two aircraft carriers to waters near Iran and positioning large air power at nearby bases.
The United States' ultimate goal appears to be to weaken or topple Iran's ayatollah Khamenei theocracy. The Trump administration, through the "Midnight Hammer" operation in June last year, struck Iran's three major nuclear facilities, disrupting its nuclear weapons timeline. Even so, the decision to launch additional attacks is analyzed as a judgment that the Khamenei regime's ruling base has been weakened by Iran's severe economic woes and the spread of anti-government protests, creating a strategic opportunity.
In his address, Trump appealed to the Iranian people, saying, "the time for freedom is near," and urging, "once we finish the attack, you take control of the government." He went on, "this may be the only opportunity in generations to overturn the theocracy," adding, "the United States supports you with overwhelming might and destructive power. This is the moment for action."
The key is the level of Iran's response. For the United States, the best scenario is Iran accepting demands at a level close to de facto surrender, but Iran has moved to immediate retaliation as it has long vowed. Depending on the situation, the possibility of deploying ground forces cannot be ruled out.
Still, a full-scale war would be a burden for Trump as well. He said the previous day, "if war breaks out, any risk follows, both good and bad," adding, "I prefer not to use military force, but sometimes it is unavoidable." With the U.S. midterm elections coming in Nov., attention is on whether Trump can use ousting Khamenei as a political "game-changer."