The black taxi, the Black Cab, which has become a symbol of London, England, is facing a crisis as U.S. and China Autonomous Driving robotaxis equipped with advanced artificial intelligence enter the market.
On the 23rd (local time), Waymo, the Autonomous Driving company under Alphabet, Google's parent company in the United Kingdom, said it will begin passenger pilot service in London as early as April and launch full-scale driverless robotaxi commercial operations in September. Ride-hailing platform Uber also teamed up with a local British artificial intelligence startup and declared its entry into the robotaxi market. Big Tech corporations, armed with capital and data, are aiming at the heart of London with fully Autonomous Driving technology.
The process of becoming a traditional Black Cab driver is notorious as the harshest and most demanding in the world. On average, candidates spend 34 months riding scooters and personally covering every corner of central London to learn the roads by heart. They memorize all 25,000 complex streets and 20,000 major landmarks located within about a 9.6-kilometer radius from Charing Cross in central London. They must also perfectly memorize 320 primary routes listed in the official Blue Book. When an examiner calls out a random origin and destination, candidates must pass by describing on the spot the fastest legal route without the aid of navigation (satellite navigation) or a map. Past questions often include specific and difficult items such as pinpointing the exact location of a historic indie band venue in London. Due to the enormous amount of memorization and strict evaluation, the dropout rate among test-takers reaches 66%.
The fact that this training is not merely symbolic has been scientifically proven. According to a 2000 study by University College London (UCL), the hippocampus region responsible for spatial memory in London taxi drivers was on average larger than in the general population. The deep reasoning process of memorizing an entire city effectively altered the brain's structure itself.
However, because of this difficult barrier to entry, the number of London Black Cab drivers has been plummeting sharply every year. London Transport Authority statistics show that the number of licensed Black Cab drivers, which stood at 25,000 in 2014, fell to the 16,000 range as of Feb. 2026. It is the lowest level in more than 50 years since 1975. While existing Black Cab drivers have gradually aged, the influx of young people who can endure the grueling exam is woefully insufficient. In contrast, the number of private-hire drivers with individual licenses affiliated with ride-hailing platforms such as Uber and Bolt, which have relatively easier entry, has exploded to more than 106,000. The Center for London, a London policy think tank, warned in a recently published report that "with fewer new drivers coming in and intense competition, Black Cabs could become completely extinct from London's roads by 2045."
Robotaxis have exploited the gap as the Black Cab industry undergoes a structural crisis. Backed by ample funding from parent company Google, Waymo flexed its muscles by unveiling its latest robotaxi vehicles in a major showcase at the London Transport Museum. The British government is also pursuing aggressive deregulation, making Autonomous Driving vehicles a core national future growth engine. British Transport Minister Lillian Greenwood announced, "We are supporting Waymo and other operators through passenger pilot services and pro-innovation regulation so that Autonomous Driving cars can become a reality on UK roads." The UK government enacted the Automated Vehicles Act in 2024 and plans full implementation in 2027. Starting next year, fully Autonomous Driving robotaxi commercial operations will be fully legalized across the United Kingdom, including London. Uber has also drawn up concrete plans to roll out robotaxis sequentially in 15 cities worldwide. London is a key hub.
Robotaxis have the potential to swiftly overcome the inherent limitations of Black Cabs, which rely on specialized drivers. Whereas Black Cabs depend entirely on the knowledge and skill human drivers have acquired, robotaxis freely leverage vast data processing and machine learning capabilities. Artificial intelligence does not feel fatigue no matter how long it operates and faces no risk of drowsy or drunk driving. Unlike the variability of human physiology, high-performance laser sensors and multiple cameras with consistent performance meticulously perceive the surroundings in real time and continually learn complex road conditions. In the long term, if labor costs disappear, there is a possibility that Londoners could be offered passenger service at fares far cheaper than traditional taxis. Uber is also rushing to build a large robotaxi ecosystem by creating a new institutional sector that bundles dedicated insurance, emergency dispatch service, and map data collection for Autonomous Driving vehicle operators.
If robotaxis successfully complete the infamously difficult task of driving on London's city streets, the era of commercial human drivers will enter a full-fledged decline. The corporations known as Hackney Carriage, to which Black Cab drivers officially belong, began in early 17th-century (1600s) London by converting carriages used by nobles to carry paying passengers. With a 400-year history, they strongly criticize that American robotaxi technology will never cope with London's uniquely irregular road environment. They argue that in service areas requiring delicate assistance—such as navigating narrow, complex backstreets that artificial intelligence struggles to predict instantly, or helping passengers who use wheelchairs and have limited mobility—the role of human drivers remains essential.
Stephen McNamara, secretary-general of the Licensed Taxi Drivers' Association, said in a media interview, "Unlike San Francisco or Phoenix in the United States, where Waymo mainly operates, London's roads in the United Kingdom are as tangled as a spider's web dating back to Roman times," adding, "Robotaxis will have no advantages on London's road network."