As U.S.-Iran talks over uranium enrichment and missile production run on parallel tracks, an outlook has emerged that a military clash between the two countries is not impossible. The two sides plan to resume nuclear talks on the 26th in Geneva, Switzerland, but experts said Iran appears lukewarm toward a deal, seemingly opting for war instead of giving up its nuclear program.
On the 23rd, the New York Times (NYT) said the United States and Iran have structurally divergent perceptions of the current crisis, and that this gap is making negotiations more difficult. The administration of Donald Trump predicted that Iran, weakened domestically and externally, would soon yield to U.S. pressure, but the analysis is that being effectively cornered will only make Iran more hard-line.
Washington points to Iran's vulnerable domestic and external situation as the backdrop for hinting at war. Last year, Iran suffered major damage to military facilities in the "12-day war" with Israel, and many senior military officials were reportedly eliminated. Long-running international sanctions have pushed the economy into a severe slump, and at the start of this year nationwide anti-government protests erupted and were bloodily suppressed, testing the regime's internal control. In this situation, the U.S. calculus is that even if Iran hunkers down, it will not last long, and that this has powered Washington's drive.
In addition, even as a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group and fighter jets mass in waters near Iran and across the Middle East, raising tensions, Iranian refusals of U.S. back-channel overtures have left senior U.S. officials puzzled. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy for the Middle East, said in a media interview, "Why have they (Iran) still not surrendered?" Vice President JD Vance also noted, "Iran is not seriously considering President Trump's demand to halt (highly enriched uranium) enrichment."
Experts, however, believe Iran's being cornered could actually increase the likelihood of war over negotiations. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has long defined uranium enrichment as directly tied to the system's identity and has maintained that the nuclear program is a sovereign right. Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "For Iran, capitulating to U.S. demands would be riskier than absorbing airstrikes," adding, "Iran suspects the United States would keep up pressure even after a deal."
Khamenei has, in fact, repeatedly stressed that "the United States' real goal is not Iran's nuclear abandonment but the collapse of the Islamic Republic system." Within the Iranian government, the calculation is operating that the moment it gives up uranium enrichment or its missile systems, it could lose both deterrence and bargaining power.
If a military clash materializes, various scenarios are being floated for how a war might unfold, and experts see a possibility that Iran would endure limited airstrikes while retaliating against U.S. bases in the Middle East. That would be a case in which both sides modulate the intensity of attacks to prevent escalation. If, however, the United States widens its strikes with regime change in mind, some analysts say U.S. forces, in coordination with Israel, would need to concentrate on Iranian missiles and command-and-control systems within the first few days. That scenario would require multilayered operations, not only airpower but also special operations and cyberwarfare.
Iran could also use asymmetric strategies. Earlier, the Yemen Houthi rebels, who form the "Axis of Resistance" and are pro-Iran, launched indiscriminate attacks in the Red Sea last year against U.S. forces and international vessels, imposing significant expense on U.S. operations. If Iran threatens tanker routes in the Strait of Hormuz or stokes tensions in the Red Sea, that could send international oil prices soaring, and President Trump, ahead of the November midterm elections, is expected to take a serious hit.
Some also say expectations that military shock will directly trigger regime collapse are excessive. After last year's clashes with Israel, Iran multilayered its command-and-control and strengthened its regime survival strategy by preparing succession scenarios for contingencies in the leadership. In fact, on the 23rd Khamenei issued special orders to guard against assassination to military officials including Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the country's top security official, and is said to have instructed all members of the leadership to designate up to four successors.
On this point, ICG analyst Vaez said, "It is an illusion to think Iran will become more flexible each time war is repeated," emphasizing, "Iran will refuse to yield to the very end."