As U.S. President Donald Trump weighs military options, including limited strikes, against Iran, some say an operation against Iran would be far more difficult than the earlier arrest of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro.
On the 21st (local time), the New York Times (NYT) reported that if the United States carries out a military operation against Iran, the clash is likely to turn into a prolonged war. Iran has powerful missile capabilities, friendly forces in the region, and a strong theocratic power structure, making it impossible to subdue with only a short-term operation, the report said.
In fact, Iran is classified as the country with the largest and most diverse missile force in the Middle East. It has a range of short-range missiles up to 435 miles (about 700 km) and medium-range missiles of 1,240 miles (about 1,995 km), putting everything from U.S. bases in western Türkiye to Israel and the six Gulf states within range. It also has drones and anti-ship missiles, and state media recently reported it conducted the first test launch of a sea-based air defense missile with a range of more than 93 miles (about 150 km) in the Strait of Hormuz.
In particular, Iran's medium- and short-range missiles put not only U.S. bases but also the Gulf states and Israel within range, meaning the clash could spill over into neighboring countries. Sanam Vakil of the U.K. think tank Chatham House said, "Iran will rapidly escalate the conflict, spread instability across multiple fronts, and widely distribute the expense and pain." That is why Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which host U.S. bases, have said they will not open their airspace if the United States attacks Iran.
The "axis of resistance," the alliance network Iran has built, is also expected to be a factor. Immediately after a U.S. invasion of Iran, pro-Iran forces, including Yemen's Houthi rebels and Lebanon's Hezbollah, could launch simultaneous responses. In fact, Kataib Hezbollah, a pro-Iran armed group in Iraq, has hinted it would carry out so-called "martyrdom operations," including suicide bombings, if the United States attacks Iran. There is also speculation that the Houthi rebels could indiscriminately attack Red Sea vessels as they did during the Israel-Hamas war in late 2023.
The economic fallout is also expected to be more severe. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass, global energy prices could surge. The official lanes of the strait are each about 2 nautical miles (about 7.4 km) wide, and on the 19th Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reportedly entered a heightened alert posture while conducting joint military drills with Russia in the strait.
Ali Vaez, Director General for Iran at the International Crisis Group (ICG), a conflict think tank, said, "In Iran's case, there are no low-cost, short-term military options," adding, "There is a real risk of U.S. casualties, and the clash will lead to full-scale war and a shock to the global economy."
Amid this, voices inside the White House are urging against an attack on Iran. Reuters earlier quoted a senior White House adviser as saying that Republican campaign strategists and internal aides fear that if President Trump becomes consumed by the Iran issue, there could be a crushing defeat in the midterm elections in November.