The United States is moving to put an end to its protracted diplomatic standoff with Iran and is toying with a military solution. Signs point not to a simple response to a localized provocation, but to a large-scale, full-scale war that would shake the foundations of the Iranian regime.
On the 18th, according to U.S. political outlet Axios, President Trump recently convened his core national security aides at the White House to discuss responses to the Iran crisis. At the meeting, the results of nuclear talks held recently in Geneva, Switzerland, were reported. Skepticism that this round of talks was a fruitless waste of time dominates among senior U.S. administration officials. The mood in the room was also chilly. One U.S. administration official told Axios, "The ball is in Iran's court, so let's see the results," while still reacting negatively to the substance of the talks. Another official dismissed the negotiations as "a hamburger without a patty."
Military moves against Iran have already shifted to a level that borders on actual combat. The United States has massed two aircraft carriers, 12 warships and hundreds of fighter jets in the Middle East. In addition, a strike group led by the world's largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, is set to enter the eastern Mediterranean within days. Military experts believe the Ford's arrival will coincide with D-Day for the start of actual strikes. This operation is on a different scale from the precision strike carried out in Venezuela last month. It is expected to be a large-scale, full-scale war lasting for weeks, targeting key facilities across Iran.
There are multiple reasons for Washington's hard turn. Above all, the diplomatic track has hit a wall. Since returning to the White House, President Trump has tried to forge a new nuclear deal, but Iran has not budged. What fueled Trump's anger was Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a lifeline of global energy supplies, effectively holding the international economy hostage.
An internal assessment also holds that now is the optimal time to force the Iranian regime to yield. Iran is currently facing large-scale domestic protests and a public that has turned against it. The fact that Israel has largely neutralized Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups over the past two years also spurred Washington's resolve. From Trump's perspective, there is a political calculation to eradicate the Iran problem—long a Middle East headache—completely within his remaining three-year term.
The United States has given Iran two weeks to bring a detailed proposal—effectively an ultimatum. In June last year, the White House also gave Iran two weeks and, when talks made no progress, launched the "Midnight Hammer" operation three days later to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. A similar sequence is highly likely this time.
People around President Trump see a very high chance of war. A presidential aide told Axios, "The president is fed up with Iran's attitude," adding, "There are some voices among aides urging restraint, but the probability of actual military action within the next few weeks is as high as 90%." Sen. Lindsey Graham also predicted that strikes against Iran could begin soon.
The Israeli government has already drawn up scenarios for war starting within days and completed full preparations. If war breaks out, the United States and Israel are highly likely to conduct joint operations. That would encompass far broader targets than past operations that hit only underground nuclear facilities in Iran. Analysts say it would be an existential crisis in which the survival of the Iranian regime itself is threatened.