As Chinese local governments are successively setting lower economic growth targets for this year, economic experts projected that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth target is likely to be set at about 5%, the same as last year. There is also a possibility that the consumer price target, which was not met last year, will be kept the same this year, while rolling out consumption support measures that differ from last year.
According to a chief economists survey recently released by China Business News, respondents viewed it as highly likely that such figures will be presented at the national Two Sessions (National People's Congress of China and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) convening in early March. The judgment reflects a synthesis of the medium- to long-term goal of doubling the size of the economy or per capita income by 2035, local governments' growth targets, the actual growth trajectory over the past three years, and the direction of future macroeconomic policy.
Since 2023, when the COVID-19 pandemic ended, China has presented a growth target of about 5% for three consecutive years. Actual growth was 5.2% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 5% in 2025, meeting the target each year.
However, as Chinese local governments earlier lowered their growth targets for this year one after another, some raised the possibility that the national growth target could be cut to as low as 4.5%. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported last month that 13 of the 20 provincial-level regions in China that released this year's growth targets presented lower goals than last year. Among them are Guangdong and Zhejiang, China's manufacturing and export hubs. Guangdong set a growth target of about 5% last year but achieved only 3.9%, so it lowered this year's target to 4.5%–5%. Zhejiang achieved last year's 5.5% growth target but still lowered this year's to 5%–5.5%.
On the continuing deflation (falling prices) issue, the Two Sessions are expected to set the 2026 annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation target at 2%. China's 2025 annual CPI inflation was 0%, far below the authorities' 2% target. Authorities sought to stimulate demand and spur a recovery in consumption and an expansion of domestic demand by providing consumption subsidies, but the effect appears to have been limited. Even so, maintaining the 2% increase target this year is interpreted as a signal that authorities will present additional consumption support measures differentiated from last year.
The chief economists confidence index released in this survey was tallied at 50.2. The China Business News confidence index is a proprietary survey that forecasts key economic indicators such as consumer prices, retail sales, industrial production, and foreign trade. With 50 as the threshold, it distinguishes expansion (50 or above) from contraction (below 50). According to China Business News, the index has remained above 50 for seven consecutive months, indicating that experts generally maintain the view that China's economy is in a phase of gradual recovery. China Business News said, "Economists assessed that policies introduced at the end of last year are taking effect sequentially and are supporting a solid start to the economy in 2026."
As for the exchange rate, projections suggest the yuan will be around 6.9 per dollar at the end of February and around 6.8 per dollar at year-end. With the "7 yuan per dollar" level having been broken at the end of last month for the first time in two years and eight months, this is interpreted to mean that a period of dollar weakness and yuan appreciation is likely to persist for the time being, making a sharp reversal to a weaker yuan unlikely.
In sum, China's economy in 2026 is likely to maintain the same growth target as last year, with a policy stance focused on stable growth and a recovery in domestic demand rather than high growth. Lian Ping, chief analyst at Guangcai Securities, said, "Growth in 2026 will be anchored by increases in consumption, a recovery in investment, and stable exports."