Switzerland will hold a national referendum in June on a bill to cap the population at 10 million. If the bill passes, there is a strong possibility that foreign immigration will be broadly restricted regardless of status—such as refugees, skilled workers, and high earners—raising expectations of fallout.
According to the Financial Times (FT) and other foreign media, the Swiss government plans to put to a mid-June referendum a population cap bill introduced by the hard-right ruling Swiss People's Party (SVP) that was realized after collecting about 100,000 signatures. In Switzerland, if signatures from more than 100,000 eligible voters are gathered within 18 months, the proposal can be put to a national vote. In an opinion poll released in Dec. last year, 48% of voters said they supported or were inclined to support the bill.
If the bill passes, by 2050, when the total population exceeds 9.5 million, entry by refugees and family members of foreign residents will be restricted first, and residence permits for temporary stays, settlement permits, and citizenship issuance will also be halted. If the population surpasses 10 million, Switzerland will withdraw from international treaties that could "fuel population growth." If the population does not fall back below 10 million within two years, it will ultimately end cooperation with the European Union (EU) on free movement of people. Switzerland is not an EU member, but it accesses the EU single market through more than 120 bilateral agreements and enjoys the benefits of free movement of people and trade in goods.
Switzerland's current population is about 9.1 million, and some projections say it could reach 10 million as early as 2035. Switzerland is Europe's economic hub, home to the headquarters of global corporations such as UBS, Nestlé, and Novartis, and a cluster of many foreign corporations including Google, IBM, and Walt Disney. With relatively low tax rates and strong living conditions, the inflow of foreigners has continued steadily. Over the past 10 years, Switzerland's population has grown by about 10%, far outpacing the EU average growth rate of about 2%.
However, paradoxically, this environment has accelerated foreign inflows and fueled growing discontent among existing residents. In 2023, as overseas corporations such as Google expanded local hiring, foreign inflows increased, and apartment sale prices in Zurich, Switzerland's largest city, topped €18,000 per square meter (about 30 million won) at the time, a record high. Bloomberg News said, "Many residents are voicing complaints that quality of life has deteriorated due to soaring rents, traffic congestion, and overcrowding on trains and buses."
The FT also said, "Complaints about a lack of dwellings are growing in Switzerland, and frustration with 'uncontrolled immigration' is spreading," adding, "This referendum comes amid a Europe-wide trend of rising public anxiety over high levels of immigration." In fact, in recent years, backlash against immigrant inflows has grown in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and elsewhere, boosting support for right-leaning parties. The SVP, which introduced the population cap bill, also put its anti-immigration stance at the forefront and won 28% of the vote in the last general election.
Corporations that have relied on immigrant labor are pushing back hard. Economiesuisse, a Swiss business group, warned the bill would "cause significant damage," arguing that it would be difficult to fill an expected labor shortage of 430,000 by 2040 without immigrants. Swissmem, the association for Swiss manufacturing, likewise stressed that hiring skilled workers from the EU is "essential" in industrial institutional sectors with high export dependence. There are also concerns that trade disruptions will be unavoidable due to the termination of agreements with the EU, not just labor shortages.