As action on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget bill that drives the Donald Trump administration's immigration policy is delayed in the U.S. Congress, the possibility of a DHS shutdown is growing. Still, the prevailing view is that even if a shutdown actually begins, most of DHS's key functions will continue as usual.
According to Reuters and others on the 12th local time, the U.S. Senate put the DHS budget bill to a vote that day, but failed to secure the 60 votes needed for passage due to Democratic opposition. Democrats say they will not pass the department's budget unless a reform plan to limit the hard-line immigration enforcement by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under DHS is accepted. If the budget bill is not handled by the 13th, DHS will enter a shutdown.
However, major foreign media reported that even if a shutdown materializes, the majority of DHS employees will continue to work. CNN reported, "Even if many employees do not receive pay until the end of the shutdown, the change felt by the public will not be significant." The New York Times (NYT) also reported, "The closer an agency is to the core of the DHS budget dispute, the less likely it is to be affected by a department closure." The hard-line immigration enforcement by ICE, which sparked Democratic backlash, is also highly likely to continue.
In fact, according to a shutdown contingency plan released by DHS in September last year, more than 90% of its 272,000 employees are to continue working during a shutdown. ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will also have more than 93% of their staff continue operations. At the time, DHS Minister Kristi Noem said that about 70,000 law enforcement personnel, including those in key divisions such as CBP and ICE, would receive pay.
The reason operations can continue is that a significant portion of DHS's work falls under "essential functions." DHS is a vast organization that includes not only ICE, CBP, and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) but also the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Coast Guard, and the Secret Service. Many personnel in these agencies carry out missions directly tied to protecting life and property, and they are classified as "essential workers" who must work without pay during a shutdown. In past shutdowns, ICE agents and Border Patrol personnel continued to work without pay.
In particular, law enforcement operations such as immigration and drug trafficking crackdowns, passenger processing and cargo inspections at ports of entry, disaster relief activities, and Secret Service protection duties—functions directly tied to national security—are expected to be maintained even during a shutdown.
Rachel Snyderman, who leads the economic policy program at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said, "Because the current structure requires most employees to keep working, the short-term impact will be limited," but noted that "if the shutdown drags on, side effects such as higher employee turnover could emerge."
Even if the budget bill does not pass, DHS has secured some financial flexibility. Through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed last summer, DHS obtained an additional $165 billion (about 238 trillion won) in resources, of which $75 billion (about 108 trillion won) was allocated to ICE and $64 billion (about 92 trillion won) to CBP.
However, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), which has relatively limited budget flexibility, is likely to be directly affected by a shutdown. About 61,000 employees, or roughly 95% of TSA staff, are classified as "essential workers" at more than 430 airports nationwide and must work without pay. During past prolonged shutdowns, increased absenteeism among TSA employees led to longer waits at airport security checkpoints. Time said, "The direct hit from the shutdown will fall on TSA," adding, "While pay may be maintained initially, if it lasts more than two weeks, there is a possibility that pay will be suspended."