As China has established itself as the world's largest clean energy power, an analysis says India is chasing it at a faster pace. India is said to be outpacing China, which was at a similar income level in the past, in the speed of electrification and electric vehicle adoption.
According to CNN on the 11th (local time), the climate and energy think tank Ember said in a recently published report that India's pace of power transition is steeper than China's in the past. Ember used China in 2012, when its per capita income was similar to India's now, as the comparison benchmark. At the time, China's per capita income was about $11,000 (about 15 million won), and solar power generation was effectively in its early stage.
By contrast, solar now accounts for about 9% of India's total power production. From rooftop systems to large-scale solar parks, capacity has expanded rapidly, propelling India to the world's No. 3 in solar generation. Electric vehicle adoption is also spreading. About 5% of all car sales in India are EVs, and sales of electric three-wheelers, in particular, are the largest in the world. About 60% of three-wheelers sold in India today are electric.
Prem Chand, who drives a small electric three-wheeler rickshaw in Delhi, told CNN, "When I compared fuel costs, electric three-wheelers were much cheaper," adding, "They're good for the environment and good for the wallet." As electric three-wheelers spread rapidly not only in big cities but also in rural areas, India's transportation system is electrifying at a rapid clip.
Of course, India has not completely broken away from fossil fuels. India plans to increase coal use over the next 20 years, and oil demand is also rising. However, Ember analyzed that compared with China at the same stage of development, India's coal consumption is only about 40%, and oil demand in the transport institutional sector is at half of China's in 2012.
The key driver of India's transition is expense. In the early 2000s, coal was much cheaper than solar, but now the combined price of solar and storage has fallen to about half the cost of building new coal plants. As prices for solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries have plunged, renewables have secured an economic edge. Some analyses say battery prices fell 40% in 2024 alone.
Clean energy also aligns with India's energy security strategy. India relies on imports for about 90% of its oil and half of its gas. Expanding renewables can be a way to reduce price volatility and geopolitical risks. A recently concluded large-scale trade deal between India and the European Union (EU) also dovetails with this shift in energy and supply chains.
Still, India faces limits in its high dependence on China for solar modules and critical mineral supply chains. In response, the Indian government has expanded solar module production 12-fold over the past decade and is pursuing projects to secure critical minerals.
Experts say India's case could influence other emerging economies. With plunging costs for renewables and electric technologies, a "leapfrogging transition" that skips the fossil fuel-centered development stage is possible. If China went through fossil fuel-based industrialization before switching to electrification, India could choose a shorter path.
Ember said, "As the global energy order is being reshaped, emerging economies are moving to a development model centered on electrification," and added, "This could shift the axis of the global competition for energy dominance."