As the threat of U.S. military action grows, Iran held a large-scale ceremony marking the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
According to the New York Times (NYT) and others on the 11th (local time), a ceremony commemorating the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution was held that day at Azadi Square in Tehran, the Iranian capital. The event was attended by President Masoud Pezeshkian and the top echelon of the Iranian regime, who showed off unity around the system.
The anniversary of the Islamic Revolution is a national holiday in Iran that commemorates the Islamic Revolution, which toppled Iran's last monarchy, the Pahlavi dynasty, in 1979 and established a theocracy centered on Islamic clerics. It falls on the 22nd day of the 11th month of the Iranian calendar, corresponding to Feb. 11 on the Gregorian calendar.
Pezeshkian, regarded as a reformist, said in his Azadi Square speech, "I am ashamed before the people, and I have a duty to help those who were harmed," adding, "We do not wish to confront the people." Even so, he emphasized, "We must unite under the supreme leader to heal society's wounds and stand against external aggression," urging loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Earlier, Iran saw anti-government protests, sparked by an economic crisis, spread nationwide last month, culminating in a bloody crackdown by security forces on thousands of civilians. Even now, with the wave of protests having subsided, arrests targeting reform camp figures are continuing, and even reform-leaning figures within the establishment appear to be underscoring obedience to the government with this in mind.
Still, social divisions were laid bare the previous night during fireworks on the eve of the revolution. As some government supporters chanted "God is great" from rooftops, other residents were seen in many places shouting back, "Death to Khamenei," "Death to the dictator." Morteza Nemati, a political scientist well-versed in Iranian politics, warned, "Society has become polarized to a dangerous degree," adding, "If the government does not negotiate with the opposition, disaster could strike."
Externally, Iran's situation is far from easy. U.S. President Donald Trump recently dispatched warships to the Persian Gulf, suggesting the possibility of sending additional aircraft carriers. In fact, he said in an interview the previous day with Israel's Channel 12, "Either we reach an agreement, or we will take very tough measures," leaving the military option on the table.
The United States is demanding three core conditions as agenda items for negotiations: freezing Iran's nuclear program and disposing of its stockpile of enriched uranium; reducing the range of its ballistic missiles; and halting support for pro-Iranian armed groups in the Middle East. However, Iran stuck to a position at the first round of talks in Oman last week that it would discuss only the nuclear program, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted, "We still do not fully trust the United States." The schedule for a second round of talks has not yet been set in detail.
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), explains that the Iranian regime has long leveraged the slogan "fighting against the United States" to bolster its legitimacy. In this context, a 12-day war with the United States and large-scale anti-government protests occurring in the same Iranian calendar year are acting as factors that, from the government's perspective, shake the regime's legitimacy.
Geranmayeh said, "The Iranian government is likely to brand this year as 'a year of resistance against the United States,'" adding, "Although the number of regime supporters has decreased significantly over the past 47 years, considering the population size, the base it can still mobilize onto the streets remains solid."