With Zhang Youxia (張又俠), vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and the No. 2 in China's military hierarchy and core of power, purged on the 24th, foreign affairs and security experts around the world have their eyes on Beijing.
Even though the People's Liberation Army has been swept up in a personnel storm bordering on an outright overturning, China's official media remain silent. Major outlets such as the People's Daily have not issued an official statement of support for President Xi Jinping to date, and tight control continues, with searches for Zhang Youxia's name restricted on social media such as Weibo.
The only movement came from the military's official newspaper, the PLA Daily. In a recent front-page commentary, the PLA Daily said "we must catch the 'big rats (碩鼠)' within the military," invoking anti-corruption as the justification for a high-intensity purge. "Big rats," a metaphor from the Book of Songs, refers to greedy officials who drain the granary.
Experts, however, say this is not simply about rooting out corruption but a political decision to solidify President Xi Jinping's one-man rule.
◇ Zhang Youxia's "letter from prison" draws attention… "The United States knows everything"
On the 3rd, the overseas Chinese-language outlet Epoch Times published what it called "Zhang Youxia's letter," which it said was delivered to an unidentified acquaintance just before Zhang was taken away. In the letter, believed to have been written in Dec. last year, Zhang, seemingly sensing he would be purged, criticized that "President Xi is using the pretext of the chairman responsibility system to meddle in military operations at every turn, ignoring principles of military personnel management and appointing generals solely based on loyalty."
He went on to say that President Xi is harming the People's Liberation Army's professionalism and bringing about a national disaster. In the letter, Zhang wrote, "U.S. military authorities already know the precise locations of our military bases and the layouts of our nuclear facilities, and even the underground hideouts of the leadership," and "the U.S. side is watching everything and has warned us that there is no chance of victory in war." This suggests that Zhang, regarded as a military expert, objectively recognized that a full-scale war with the U.S. military would be "a gamble with no chance of winning."
He particularly argued his innocence, saying, "After I am purged, fabricated information may spread claiming bundles of cash were found at my home, but that is just a typical tactic." The authenticity of the letter has not been verified. Experts said, however, that regardless of authenticity, the contents reflect widespread discontent within China's military toward President Xi and concerns over military inferiority against the United States. The Epoch Times added a commentator's view that "while the possibility that the letter was forged cannot be ruled out, the strategic fissures between President Xi and the military described within are highly specific and persuasive."
◇ Anti-corruption as pretext… Clash with the military over timing of a Taiwan invasion and patriarchal leadership
Hong Kong outlet Asia Times analyzed that the essence of the purge lies not in corruption but in President Xi's plan to invade Taiwan. Xi has pressed the People's Liberation Army to complete military preparations for unification with Taiwan by 2027, the PLA's 100th anniversary.
But some claim that Zhang Youxia, with extensive combat experience, advocated caution due to the U.S. military's overwhelming capabilities and the PLA's lack of readiness. The Washington Times reported, "Taking PLA Daily reports and others together, Zhang questioned the feasibility of meeting the 100th anniversary goal set by President Xi and recommended adjusting the pace."
Zhang Youxia is the PLA's last "war hero" to have fought in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War and Xi's closest confidant of 70 years, tied through generations with Xi's father. As much as military differences, fear of the "North Koreanization of the system" is cited as a fundamental reason that split the two. In the letter, Zhang condemned President Xi for morphing the existing "chairman responsibility system" into a de facto unchecked "patriarchal leadership," driving China toward a North Korea-style one-man dictatorship.
Analysts say tensions also grew as President Xi broke the promise of dividing power among the party (Cai Qi), government (Li Qiang), and military (Zhang Youxia), which had been agreed at the Third Plenum, and concentrated all power in himself. This means it was not merely a dispute over the timing of war, but a last warning from a military elder that China's state governance system is regressing from a modern party state to a premodern autocratic monarchy.
The fact that even such a military-centered figure was removed is seen as signaling President Xi's determination not to tolerate even the slightest challenge to his authority and core plans.
◇ Only "yes-men" remain in China's military… Has the risk of a Taiwan invasion grown?
The New York Times (NYT) assessed the situation as "the result of Xi Jinping's paranoia combined with power games." Since 2023, President Xi has effectively replaced or purged six of the seven members of the Central Military Commission, excluding himself. In the process, commanders with expertise and experience disappeared, and the top brass was filled with rubber stamps who unconditionally obey Xi's orders.
Outlooks on what comes next are split. Some say the collapse of a capable command will leave China unable even to contemplate an attempt to invade Taiwan. An invasion of Taiwan would be the most complex amphibious operation in human history, mobilizing the army, navy, air force, Rocket Force, and Strategic Support Force. Reuters, citing former U.S. government officials, pointed out that "as President Xi has replaced six of the seven Central Military Commission members over the past three years, the continuity of operations has been completely broken."
In particular, with the top leadership of the Rocket Force—central to modern warfare—and the Equipment Development Department, which handles procurement, wiped out, analysts say it is nearly impossible for newly appointed so-called "parachuted" commanders to carry out sophisticated integrated operations against U.S. and Taiwanese forces. A former U.S. intelligence official told Reuters, "The Chinese military is now consumed by internal inspections under the fear that one's own head could roll at any time, rather than preparing for war," adding, "With such a military, it is difficult to conduct even a limited war."
On the other hand, with only loyalists left in place of the cautious generals, there are concerns that if President Xi makes a miscalculation, the brakes to stop it are gone.
As veterans like Zhang Youxia disappear and the posts are filled by Xi's former personal secretaries or political commissars, critics say the military has degenerated into a political tool rather than a warfighting body with expertise. NBC, citing experts, assessed that "Zhang Youxia, with extensive combat experience, was the only person who could candidly tell President Xi that there was 'a lack of readiness,' seeing U.S. military power as a real threat." Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, warned NBC that "even if President Xi is not confident of victory, if the surrounding 'yes-men' submit only the reports he wants to see, the likelihood of a war by miscalculation has grown far greater than before."
The Financial Times (FT) interpreted the purge as exposing the "instability of Xi Jinping's leadership." Citing experts, the FT assessed, "It means the system is so unstable that Xi had to even oust Zhang Youxia, his closest ally of 70 years, to suppress internal backlash."