New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last nuclear arms control pact between the United States and Russia, which hold the most nuclear weapons in the world, was not extended and expired on the 5th (local time). With the disappearance of the only treaty that had limited the number of strategic nuclear weapons held by the United States and Russia, concerns are mounting about an arms race and rising geopolitical tensions.
The Trump administration did not indicate by midnight on the 4th Eastern time (2 p.m. on the 5th in Korea) that it would accept Russia's proposal to extend New START for one year.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing on the 5th that the treaty would expire at 12 a.m. as the date turns from the 5th to the 6th, saying, "After today, its effect will be suspended." Peskov said President Vladimir Putin had proposed a unilateral one-year extension of the treaty, but the United States still had not responded.
Peskov said, "What happens next depends on how events unfold," but added, "In any case, Russia will maintain a responsible and prudent approach to issues of strategic stability in the field of nuclear weapons." A White House official told Bloomberg News that day that President Donald Trump would decide on the future direction of nuclear arms control and clarify it according to a set schedule.
New START is the last nuclear disarmament treaty that continued the line after the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks 1 (SALT1), the first outcome of nuclear arms reduction talks begun by the United States and the then-Soviet Union in 1969, was concluded in 1972. It took effect on Feb. 5, 2011. The original term was 10 years, but the two countries agreed in Feb. 2021 to extend it for five years, so it was to remain in force until Feb. 4, 2026.
The international community expressed deep concern that the promises of both great powers had all disappeared.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement that the expiration of New START is a significant moment for international peace and security, adding, "For the first time in more than half a century, we are faced with a world without any legally binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States."
New START came under strain as distrust between the two countries grew after Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb. 2022. In Feb. 2023, President Vladimir Putin declared a suspension of participation in New START, claiming the West was responsible for the war in Ukraine, and the Biden administration at the time halted information sharing and allowing inspections of nuclear facilities in response. However, Russia asserted that even after announcing the suspension, it would adhere to the treaty's core limit on the number of nuclear weapons.
The United States said it could not verify compliance because Russia did not allow verification of the number of warheads. However, in an annual report submitted to Congress in January last year, it assessed that Russia's violations of the treaty did not currently threaten U.S. national security interests.
President Trump has signaled he would seek a new nuclear arms control deal after New START expires. He told The New York Times last month regarding New START, "If it expires, it expires, and we will make a better deal," adding, "A couple more players may be involved." This is where interpretations arise that a nuclear arms control agreement encompassing other nuclear-armed states, such as China, could be possible.
China is estimated to possess about 600 nuclear warheads in 2024 and to exceed 1,000 by 2030. The Chinese government has made clear its refusal to consider nuclear disarmament talks that include China. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Lin Jian said at a briefing on the 5th that China's nuclear forces are "not at all on the same level as those of the United States and Russia," adding, "At this stage, we will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations."
Russia, by contrast, says that if nuclear disarmament talks are expanded, the United Kingdom and France, U.S. allies, must also participate.