The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, expired on the 5th local time. With the core treaty that has limited U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear arms since the Cold War losing effect, observers say this marks a symbolic turning point showing Russia's diminished status as a superpower.
According to CNN on the 4th, Russia's influence on the international stage has shrunk significantly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union cost it much of its territory, finances and global clout, but Russia maintained parity with the United States in the nuclear arena. Thanks to its standing as a nuclear power, the Russian government could still remain a key player in the international security order.
The mechanism that institutionally supported that status was the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. In 2010, then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the treaty in Prague, Czech Republic. The pact limited each country to a maximum of 1,550 long-range nuclear warheads deployable on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and strategic bombers. The U.S. government at the time called it a "historic agreement" that stabilized the nuclear order after the Cold War.
But the treaty expired that day without an extension. The United States has argued that Russia violated the pact by refusing inspections of nuclear sites and showed little will to keep the agreement in place. In particular, President Donald Trump downplayed the possibility of expiration, saying, "If it expires, it expires." Despite concerns about a world without limits on nuclear arms, he repeatedly suggested a better deal was possible.
This stance by the U.S. contrasts with Russia's anxiety. Former President Medvedev recently warned that the expiration is a sign humanity is moving closer to the "Doomsday Clock." The Kremlin also voiced concern, saying, "The United States is silent on extension talks," and, "For the first time ever, the U.S. and Russia will be left without a basic document limiting the number of nuclear weapons."
Experts, however, say Russia's sense of crisis goes beyond security to fears of losing strategic status. With the treaty gone, Russia has forfeited the diplomatic symbol of being a "superpower leading nuclear arms control" that dates back to the Soviet era. The United States, by contrast, has room to expand its nuclear forces on the back of overwhelming economic power and defense spending. Analysts say it is virtually impossible for Russia, far behind in economic strength and fiscal capacity, to catch up.
Behind the U.S. reluctance on arms control is a strategic calculation to bring China into a new nuclear negotiating framework. But that results in the end of a superpower arms control regime centered on U.S.-Russia bilateralism. At the same time, observers say the U.S. arms control posture of voluntarily accepting constraints to limit the number of nuclear weapons has effectively ended.