Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had allied with the Donald Trump administration and played a key role in stabilizing the Middle East, have recently deteriorated. Some expect that the two countries' clash of pride over the civil war in Yemen could spread beyond the Middle East to other regions.
On the 4th (local time), the New York Times (NYT), in a story headlined "Trump's closest Arab allies collide in the Gulf as full-fledged conflict begins," reported that "tensions between the two countries are reshaping conflicts and alliance structures across the Middle East and Africa."
The immediate trigger that stoked the recent tensions was the civil war in Yemen. On Dec. 30 last year, Saudi Arabia bombed the port city of Mukalla in southern Yemen, a base for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a Yemeni separatist group backed by the UAE. As the STC expanded its influence, Saudi Arabia launched military action to stop it.
In fact, Saudi Arabia and the UAE formed an alliance in 2015 against Yemen's Houthi rebels, who are supported by Iran. But over the next decade or so, they each supported rival factions and took diverging positions on oil policy, creating cracks in the relationship. The rift deepened further as the UAE normalized diplomatic relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia normalized ties with Qatar.
Saudi Arabia is also waging a public opinion campaign against the UAE. Through state media, it accused the UAE of supporting armed militias in Yemen and Sudan and fomenting chaos in those regions, and in January it invited journalists to Yemen to unveil what was believed to be a former secret prison run by the UAE, highlighting human rights abuses. The Ministry of National Defense of the UAE strongly pushed back, calling it "a coordinated campaign to tarnish the UAE's honor."
Experts worry that tensions between the two countries are spreading to other states in the region, which could worsen already intensifying Middle East conflicts and fracture alliance structures. In the worst case, some raise the possibility of a repeat of the "Qatar diplomatic rupture," when in 2017 Saudi Arabia and the UAE cut diplomatic ties with Qatar and completely blocked land, sea and air access, citing support for terrorist organizations and friendliness with Iran.
The rift has already spread to other continents. The UAE backs a paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while Saudi Arabia supports Sudan's military, putting them on opposing sides in Sudan as in Yemen. Alan Boswell, who leads the Horn of Africa portfolio at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "We are preparing for the fallout," adding, "We expect the civil war in Sudan to intensify and Somalia's fragmentation to deepen as a result."
The tensions are also likely to burden the United States. Both countries have pledged large-scale investments in the United States, and President Trump is hoping to deliver results in Middle East policy, including issues involving Israel and the Gaza Strip, through cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. So far, the Trump administration has refrained from taking sides over the Saudi-UAE tensions, the NYT said.