The push for secession in Alberta, in central western Canada, is intensifying. With deep-rooted resentment toward the federal government compounded by the recent prospect of overt intervention from the U.S. political sphere, residents are seen as moving into full-scale action.
According to the influential Canadian daily the Globe and Mail, the current in conservative-leaning Alberta demanding secession is turning into an organized movement. Alberta was separated from the Northwest Territories in 1905 and incorporated as a province, and is well known for the Rocky Mountains and Banff and Jasper national parks, the mountain town of Canmore, and Calgary, Canada's fourth-largest city. It is also a core energy region that holds the world's largest deposits of oil sands (a resource of sand mixed with petroleum).
The secession movement is being led by Mitch Sylvester, the district chair of Alberta's regionalist party United Conservative Party and head of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP). Over the past year, Sylvester held more than 100 briefings across Alberta to push a secession referendum and is working to collect signatures from 178,000 voters by May 2. An Ipsos poll found that about 29% of Alberta residents support secession.
Sylvester is using resentment toward the federal government in Ottawa and the eastern Canadian elite as the main fuel for the signature drive. He has publicly claimed that large quantities of fentanyl are flowing from Canada into the United States and has advanced a conspiracy theory that current Canadian immigration policy is part of an attempt to replace the existing white population. He has also repeatedly argued that Alberta has been excluded from tangible benefits as its natural resource revenue is subject to transfer to the East.
Public sentiment for secession appears to have taken shape rapidly when the previous Justin Trudeau administration crafted new climate policy. In 2023, when Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada would phase out coal and gas development by 2035 and convert all new cars to 100% zero-emission vehicles, Alberta, which leads the oil industry, took a direct hit.
In Alberta, a so-called "western alienation" view that the federal government neglects the West in energy and environmental policy had already built up for decades. The explanation is that despite holding Canada's largest crude reserves and underpinning the economy, Alberta is widely seen as being placed at a disadvantage in policymaking because its population is only one-third that of Ontario. The federal government's carbon tax and pipeline regulations are also known to have amplified such discontent.
The Alberta State Governments led by Danielle Smith is also adding momentum to the push. Many lawmakers from the ruling United Conservative Party (UCP) led by Premier Smith are said to have signed the petition for a secession referendum, and Smith has shown a reserved stance toward fellow premiers' requests to stop the secession movement, saying "securing sovereignty comes first." Earlier, Smith passed the "Alberta Sovereignty Act," securing the authority to refuse the application of federal laws, and also passed a bill allowing referendums to proceed with fewer citizen signatures.
On top of that, reports that the U.S. State Department has been in continuous contact with the APP are giving the secession movement added momentum. According to the Financial Times (FT), the APP has met U.S. State Department officials three times since last April following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, and they are pushing for a fourth meeting next month. APP legal counsel Jeff Rath said, "The United States is passionate about Alberta's independence," and the U.S. State Department has hinted at a position that implicitly acknowledges the meetings.
However, Alberta is expected to face significant procedures to succeed legally at independence. A 1988 Supreme Court of Canada decision holds that no province can unilaterally decide to secede and that independence requires support from a "clear majority" and constitutional amendment negotiations with the federal government and other provinces. This is why Quebec in the East has continued its secession push since the country's founding but has not realized it to date.
Some raise suspicions that President Trump, who seeks to incorporate Canada into the United States, is deliberately stoking turmoil in the neighboring country. Immediately after taking office, Trump pledged to annex Canada as the 51st state of the United States and maintained pressure by imposing a 35% reciprocal tariff on Canada. Some analysts say the United States may be backing Alberta to break up the Canadian federation.