As tensions rise between the United States and Europe over the Donald Trump administration's "Greenland annexation" issue, there are projections that the United States could use natural gas as leverage to pressure Europe.
On the 26th (local time), the New York Times (NYT), in an article titled "As Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas grows, Trump's influence is also increasing," reported, "As tensions over Greenland escalate, concerns are being raised that the Trump administration could use the U.S. oil and gas industry as a means of pressure on Europe."
Until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe imported most of its natural gas from Russia. As of 2019, Russian natural gas accounted for more than half of the European Union (EU)'s total gas imports. However, when Europe strongly criticized Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, Russia hit back by cutting off natural gas supplies, and Europe has gradually reduced imports of Russian gas.
In the process, U.S. natural gas emerged as an alternative to Russian supplies. Since late 2022, the United States has shipped large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European ports such as the Netherlands, France and Belgium, replacing Russian fuel. At the end of 2019, U.S. gas accounted for only about 5% of the EU's total natural gas imports, but last year it is estimated to have risen to more than one-fourth.
This trend also aligns with the Trump administration's policy stance. The Trump administration, which has promoted "America First," has encouraged Europe to expand imports of U.S. LNG as part of a trade agreement signed with the EU last year. According to market research firm Bruegel, in 2025 U.S. LNG exports to EU countries increased by about 60% from the previous year.
With Europe more dependent on U.S. natural gas, the recent conflict over the Greenland annexation issue is heightening concerns about possible supply disruptions. The NYT said anxiety is spreading in Europe that President Trump could use the strong position the United States has secured in the oil and gas institutional sector as a tool to pressure other countries.
Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a Paris-based researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said, "Recently, people have begun to realize that we are overly dependent on U.S. LNG."
Even as Europe moves to expand renewable energy such as wind and solar, it still relies heavily on natural gas for home heating and industrial production. For this reason, if the United States were to take the extreme step of cutting off supplies, the damage to Europe would be substantial. Christophe Halsa, a senior analyst at consulting firm Rystad Energy, noted, "Europe has virtually no alternatives."
However, even if political tensions between the United States and Europe intensify, the prevailing view is that the Trump administration is unlikely to actually halt natural gas exports. David Goldwyn, head of Goldwyn Global Strategies, said, "Halting natural gas exports would send a very negative signal to the market and significantly undermine the competitiveness of the industry the administration has promised to support."
There is also an assessment that the structure of the U.S. energy industry is fundamentally different from Russia, where the Kremlin's influence is absolute. In a recent study, Jack Reed of Oxford Economics, a global economic analysis firm, said, "The Kremlin was able to weaponize gas flows in 2022 by using Gazprom, the state-owned gas monopoly," while forecasting, "In the case of the United States, it is more likely to divert volumes headed for Europe to other regions rather than completely halt them."