As the United States formalized a new defense strategy that demands a sharp increase in defense costs from allies, Japan's security policy has come under a major test. With the Donald Trump administration putting the expansion of allies' defense responsibility at the core of its defense policy, the Japanese government is being pressed to make a difficult choice between fiscal burdens and security autonomy.
According to the Asahi Shimbun on the 25th, the newly released National Defense Strategy (NDS) by the United States is built on four pillars: strengthening defense of the U.S. homeland, deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, expanding defense responsibilities of allies and partners, and mobilizing the defense industrial base. The strategy presents as a "new global standard" the idea that allies and partner countries, including Japan, should raise defense expenditure to around 5% of gross domestic product (GDP), and urged them to meet it. This far exceeds the 2% of GDP benchmark set by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The United States believes that only when allies have the ability to deter potential adversaries on their own can combined forces respond effectively even in simultaneous crises. It also made clear a direction that, while prioritizing homeland and Western Hemisphere defense, each region's security should be borne more by the country concerned.
The Japanese government is keeping its distance from immediate acceptance. Japan is already pursuing a policy to raise defense spending to around 2% of GDP. There is a strong view that 5%, 3 percentage points higher, could place a considerable burden on the overall fiscal structure. Kyodo News said, "The Trump administration is known to have informally asked Japan to raise defense spending to around 3.5% of GDP," adding, "Within the Japanese government, there are views that even this figure is realistically hard to achieve."
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in an online debate held ahead of the House of Representatives election that "I have never directly heard the figure of 5% from the United States," and noted that increases in defense spending should be determined autonomously by Japan. Takaichi went on to say that with defense spending rising to 2% of GDP in fiscal 2025 (April 2025–March 2026), "this is a sufficient level," adding, "We are reinforcing areas still lacking, such as satellite and undersea cable defense and the defense industrial base." She also stressed, "Japan should strengthen its defense capabilities in an independent and autonomous manner."
The National Defense Strategy is a document signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a concrete policy guideline reflecting President Trump's emphasis on "peace through strength." Analysts say the demand to increase defense spending also carries a calculation to invigorate the U.S. defense industry by expanding allied armaments.
Inside and outside Japan, concerns are growing that if defense spending expands to around 5% of GDP, adjustments to other budget items, including social security costs, may become unavoidable. With the United States presenting a defense strategy that places its own interests at the forefront as an official document, critics say Japan now faces the dual task of security self-reliance and fiscal burdens.