Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi threw the gauntlet by dissolving the House of Representatives just over three months after taking office. Experts said this was the result of calculations to shore up the administration's base on the back of high cabinet approval ratings and a strategy to catch the opposition off guard before it can regroup.
According to the Mainichi Shimbun and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 23rd, the Takaichi cabinet held a cabinet meeting in the morning and decided to dissolve the House of Representatives. In the afternoon plenary session, Speaker Fukushiro Nukaga read the dissolution proclamation, and lawmakers' terms ended immediately. This is the first dissolution in about one year and three months since Oct. 2024, during the administration of former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The snap general election will proceed with the election notice on the 27th, followed by voting on the 8th of next month.
Japanese media are watching to see how voters will judge a potential reshuffle of the ruling coalition in this general election. The Liberal Democratic Party split with its longtime partner of the past 25 years, Komeito, when Takaichi took office. Instead, it formed a new coalition government with the reform-leaning right-wing party Japan Innovation Party. The LDP's 199 seats plus the Japan Innovation Party's 34 seats total 233, barely exceeding a majority of the 465 seats. Takaichi aims to secure a stable majority in this election and put momentum behind economic and security policy.
The opposition, meanwhile, has united under the banner of "anti-Takaichi." Komeito, the LDP's longtime partner, joined hands with the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party to launch the Centrist Reform Alliance. The two parties, with different ideological stripes, rallied under the rationale of checking the Takaichi administration's rapid rightward shift and safeguarding the principles of the pacifist Constitution. The Centrist Reform Alliance secured 172 seats as of just before the dissolution, showing considerable strength. Nikkei analyzed, "This election has strong overtones of a referendum on whether Prime Minister Takaichi should remain in office," adding, "It is an election that relies more on the prime minister's personal popularity than on the LDP itself."
The key issue is "economic policy over handling prices." Japan has seen continued price increases, centered on groceries and dining out, due to the weak yen and rising import prices. The ruling alliance is reviewing a plan to temporarily suspend the reduced 8% consumption tax on food to ease household burdens. The opposition alliance, by contrast, has pledged to abolish consumption taxes altogether on everyday food, including supermarket ingredients and processed foods.
Other major flashpoints are expected to include the LDP faction slush fund scandal and issues related to foreign residents and tourists. The Mainichi Shimbun also noted that moves by smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP, 27 seats), which emphasizes wage hikes and worker support, and the Sanseitō (three seats), which advocates "Japan first," will be variables.
Experts said Takaichi's grip on state affairs will be determined by the election outcome. Takaichi cited "the people's confidence" as the rationale for dissolution. She said, "I have yet to receive the people's direct choice regarding my taking office as prime minister in October last year and the launch of the new coalition government." The Takaichi cabinet is currently posting high approval ratings of 60% to 70%.
If the ruling camp wins the snap election, Takaichi will firmly seize the initiative in state affairs. Conversely, failure to secure a majority could plunge her into a crisis of resignation along with calls for accountability. The outline of winners and losers is expected to emerge around midnight on the 8th at the earliest.