The United States' homicide rate was shown to have declined by more than 20% in a year, and overall crime rates fell. It is seen as a result of the Donald Trump administration's sweeping crackdown on immigrants, including deploying the National Guard to major U.S. cities.
On the 22nd (local time), the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), a U.S. think tank, analyzed data from 40 U.S. cities that reported monthly crime statistics over the past eight years and found that last year's overall crime rate decreased from the previous year. Of 13 major crimes, the number of incidents fell year over year in 11 categories, and in nine of those, the decline exceeded 10%.
Specifically, homicides decreased 21%, firearm-related assaults 22%, robberies 23%, and carjackings 43%, with rates of most violent crimes plunging. As a result, the number of violent crimes fell to the lowest level since 2019, when crime rates peaked.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has not yet released official crime statistics, but the prevailing view is that results similar to the CCJ report will emerge. The CCJ said, "If the FBI releases nationwide homicide statistics at the end of this year, the 2025 homicide rate is very likely to fall to about 4.0 per 100,000 people," adding, "This would be the lowest figure recorded in law enforcement and public health data since 1900, and the largest single-year decline."
The Trump administration is highlighting the decline in crime as a policy achievement. White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt posted CCJ data on the social media platform X, saying it was "the result when there is a president who mobilizes federal law enforcement agencies to apprehend violent criminals and the worst illegal immigrants."
The White House also said on its official website, "Under President Trump's leadership, the United States has become the safest country in 100 years, and new data proves it," adding, "This groundbreaking change is a direct result of President Trump's unwavering determination to make America safe again."
During the presidential campaign the year before last, President Trump made eradicating crime, especially immigrant-related crime, a core pledge. After taking office, he deployed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for a sweeping crackdown on immigrants and took tough measures such as deploying the National Guard to major cities.
In fact, the homicide rate in Washington, D.C., where President Trump deployed the National Guard, fell 40%, the second-largest decline among the 35 cities that provided relevant statistics, following Denver (-41%). In addition, Los Angeles (LA), Buffalo, Albuquerque, Long Beach, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Chicago all saw homicide rates decline by more than 30%. The Trump administration also deployed the National Guard to LA and Chicago last year.
However, assessments differ on the causes of the decline in crime. The conservative outlet Fox News reported, "Last year, the number of homicides across the United States hit a record low, a dramatic reversal after violent crime surged following the COVID-19 pandemic and left-wing leaders pursued policies such as cutting police budgets and releasing habitual offenders without bail," adding, "After the president intervened directly, Washington, D.C.'s crime rate fell noticeably."
By contrast, the progressive New York Times (NYT) said, "Our own investigation found that only 7% of immigration detainees had prior violent crime convictions," adding, "Experts noted there is little evidence to support the claim that President Trump was directly responsible for last year's decline in crime."
Alex Piquero, who served as director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics during the Biden administration and now teaches criminology at the University of Miami, told the NYT, "Among cities where the National Guard was not deployed, there were far more places where crime decreased than in cities where the Guard was sent."
The Washington Post (WP) also reported, citing its own analysis, that a decline in crime was confirmed, adding, "Democratic mayors and some criminologists see the decline that began during former President Joe Biden's tenure as linked to the Biden administration's large-scale investments during the pandemic in community-based violence interruption and integrated social services."