As the Chinese government defines childbirth as a "patriotic act" and encourages marriage and childbirth through various policies, last year's birth rate in China was found to have hit an all-time low.
According to data released on the 19th by China's National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births in China last year was 7.92 million, down about 17% from the previous year (9.54 million). The number of births per 1,000 people was 5.63, the lowest since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949.
China's total population fell by 3.39 million in one year to 1.40489 billion, the steepest drop since 2022. The number of deaths increased from 10.93 million in 2024 to 11.31 million last year, while the number of newborns fell from 9.54 million to 7.92 million over the same period.
As a result, China has continued a trend of "natural population decline," with deaths outnumbering newborns for four consecutive years. If this trend continues, the population age 60 and older is expected to reach 400 million in 2035.
Experts say China's total fertility rate has fallen considerably. The total fertility rate is the average number of births a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years, and a rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a country's total population. In fact, China's total fertility rate kept falling and dropped to 1.07 in 2022. Last year's total fertility rate in China is also estimated to have fallen below 1.
Earlier, China's leadership took various steps to raise the birthrate. In 2023, President Xi Jinping called to "actively foster a new culture of marriage and childbirth," and, in response, local governments have implemented tough policies such as managing women's menstrual cycles and issuing guidelines to reduce abortions.
The imposition of a 13% value-added taxes on condoms and contraceptives starting on the 1st of this month is also seen as an extension of these policies.
However, demographers say China has already crossed the "threshold of population decline," and that it is virtually impossible to reverse this with policy. Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, said, "Even looking at other countries' cases, financial incentives have little effect on raising the birthrate."
The biggest reason the younger generation is reluctant to have children appears to be the economic situation. China's economy grew 5% in 2025, but young people are struggling to secure stable incomes due to the real estate crisis and high unemployment. As of Oct. last year, China's youth unemployment rate was 17.3%, more than three times the overall jobless rate (5.1%).
Some also analyze that an aversion to marriage itself is widespread among young people. Authorities even proposed paying cash for successful matchmaking, but as more young people say they do not want to marry, the policy is yielding little.
An official at a Beijing matchmaking agency said, "Most of those who repeatedly participate in matchmaking events are men," adding, "The younger generation does not seem to view marriage and childbirth as essential stages of life."