As U.S. President Donald Trump shows a brazen ambition for Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, an analysis said global warming he has long denied is increasing Greenland's value.
According to the Washington Post (WP) on the 18th, the strategic and economic value of Greenland is soaring as Arctic sea ice melts faster due to global warming. Observations show the Arctic is melting at four times the global average pace, sharply boosting the development value of surrounding regions.
Sherri Goodman, former U.S. Department of Defense deputy assistant secretary for environmental security, said, "As sea ice retreats, Greenland is becoming a far more attractive region from a development standpoint," and noted, "Much of the value President Trump seeks there is the result of environmental change." Earlier, Trump publicly cited Greenland's strategic location and vast undeveloped mineral resources such as diamonds, lithium and copper as reasons he wants it.
The Arctic has already provided new sea routes as ice coverage rapidly shrank over about 50 years. Representative examples are the "Northern Sea Route," which connects Europe and Asia along the Siberian seas north of Russia, and the "Northwest Passage," which runs from the Atlantic along North America's northern coast to the Pacific. On Oct. 10, a Chinese container ship sailed the Northern Sea Route instead of the Suez Canal and arrived in Europe 20 days faster than the usual route.
Experts say that as the Arctic effectively becomes ice-free, transport distances and expenses will drop sharply and competition among nations over key maritime chokepoints will intensify. Joseph Majkut, Director General at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, "Arctic sea ice loss is creating an entirely new stage for economic and security competition," adding, "It has long been anticipated, but this is the inflection point."
Climate scenarios also support this outlook. According to a 2021 study in the international journal Nature, if the global average temperature rises 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, the Arctic's open water period is projected to increase by 63 days, and with a 3.5-degree rise, much of the Arctic is expected to be ice-free for at least three months each year. The exact timing is uncertain, but the academic consensus is that this state could materialize within decades.
Still, even if the Arctic becomes an so-called "open ocean," it does not immediately become a venue for economic activity. Climate scientist Zack Labe said, "Sea ice loss means simultaneously losing the natural barrier that blocked wind and waves," adding, "There will be more strong winds, rough seas and unpredictable maritime conditions, and with a lack of ports and rescue infrastructure, the risks of navigation could actually increase."
Meanwhile, even as the effects of climate change become reality, President Trump is moving in the opposite direction by cutting climate-related budgets. Experts say he is committing a serious strategic error. Goodman, the former deputy assistant secretary, said, "Climate change is a clear national security risk," stressing, "Shifts in Arctic ice conditions and the opening of sea routes are greatly raising geopolitical tensions."