As U.S. President Donald Trump shows overt ambitions for Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, an analysis found that global warming, which he has consistently denied, is boosting Greenland's value.
According to the Washington Post (WP) on the 18th, the strategic and economic value of Greenland is soaring as Arctic sea ice melts faster due to global warming. Observations show the Arctic is melting at four times the global average rate, sharply raising the development value of surrounding regions.
Sherri Goodman, former U.S. Deputy Minister for Environmental Security at the Ministry of National Defense, said, "As sea ice recedes, Greenland is becoming a far more attractive place from a development standpoint," adding, "Much of the value President Trump is pursuing there is the result of environmental change." Earlier, Trump publicly cited Greenland's strategic location as well as vast untapped mineral resources such as diamonds, lithium and copper as reasons he wants it.
Previously, the Arctic has provided new maritime routes as ice extent shrank rapidly over about 50 years. The "Northern Sea Route," which connects Europe and Asia along the Siberian Sea north of Russia, and the "Northwest Passage," which runs from the Atlantic along North America's northern coast to the Pacific, are representative. On Oct. 10, a Chinese container ship sailed the Northern Sea Route instead of the Suez Canal and arrived in Europe 20 days faster than the traditional route.
Experts say that as the Arctic effectively becomes ice-free, transport distance and expense will be slashed and competition among nations over key maritime chokepoints will intensify. Joseph Majkut, Director General at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, "Arctic sea ice melt is creating an entirely new stage for economic and security competition," adding, "It has long been foreseen, but now is the inflection point."
Climate scenarios also back up this outlook. According to a 2021 study in the international journal Nature, if the global average temperature rises 2 degrees compared with the pre-industrial era, the Arctic's open-water period is projected to increase by 63 days, and with a 3.5-degree rise, much of the Arctic would be ice-free at least three months each year. The exact timing is uncertain, but academia broadly concludes that such conditions could materialize within decades.
However, the Arctic will not immediately become a venue for economic activity just because it becomes so-called "open water." Climate scientist Zack Labe noted, "Losing sea ice means simultaneously losing the natural barrier that blocked wind and waves," adding, "High winds, rough seas and unpredictable marine conditions will increase, and the lack of ports and rescue infrastructure could actually raise navigational risks."
Meanwhile, even as the impacts of climate change become a reality, President Trump has moved in the opposite direction by cutting climate-related budgets. Experts say he is committing a serious strategic mistake. Goodman, the former Deputy Minister, stressed, "Climate change is a clear national security risk," adding, "Changing Arctic ice conditions and the opening of sea lanes are greatly ratcheting up geopolitical tensions."