As the Iran situation grows increasingly acute, Arab Gulf countries are reportedly discouraging U.S. military intervention against Iran. There is a calculated rationale behind why countries long at odds with Iran appear to be siding with the Iranian regime.
On the 14th, The New York Times (NYT), in a story headlined "Trump's Gulf allies don't want him to bomb Iran," said, "Many Gulf Arab nations do not feel favorable toward Iran, but they fear the fallout from escalating tensions will reach their own countries."
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also reported the previous day that Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar are lobbying the Trump administration against attacking Iran. Saudi Arabia is the leading nation of Sunni Islam and has long competed with Iran, the leading nation of Shia Islam, for regional dominance in the Middle East.
The main reason Gulf states are defending Iran is that if the United States topples the Iranian regime, the oil market—their primary source of revenue—could become unstable. The Gulf countries export oil through the Persian Gulf, and if Iran, in retaliation, blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, severe damage to oil exports would be unavoidable.
In June last year, Iran also warned it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response to a U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil consumption passes, and at the time experts warned that if the strait were closed, international oil prices could top $150 per Barrel, the record high since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Moreover, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has long served as a key port in trade with Iran. With President Trump threatening to impose a 25% tariff on U.S. trading partners that transact with Iran, a worsening Iran crisis would inevitably deal a broader blow to trade. UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said, "We are Iran's second-largest trading partner, and Iran is one of the major countries that provides and supplies a wide range of goods, especially food."
The political fallout if Iran strikes back after a U.S. attack is also a major concern for Gulf states. Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the Bahrain Institute for Strategic Studies, noted, "Scenarios such as the possibility that Iran's military or nuclear capabilities slip out of state control, separatist uprisings by minority groups, and a massive refugee crisis could have long-term negative consequences for Gulf regional security."
In particular, Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia, which have governed their people in an authoritarian manner under absolute monarchies, are wary that Iran's anti-government protests could spread to their own countries. In Saudi Arabia's case, if Iran's political instability translates into protests at home, its past record of hard-line crackdowns on demonstrators could again come to the fore. Regional instability could also negatively affect Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's national reform project, "Vision 2030," which centers on boosting tourism and reducing dependence on oil.
The NYT also reported that a collapse of Iran could upend the balance of power among countries in the Middle East, another major concern for Gulf states. Some Gulf governments view Israel, Iran's archrival, as a belligerent state seeking regional hegemony, and believe that if Iran is weakened or collapses, Israel could seize the opportunity to expand its influence.
In fact, Israel last year launched a surprise attack on Iran and attempted to assassinate senior Hamas officials in Qatar, continuing its bold moves. Yasmine Farouk, who leads the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said Gulf states are worried both about "the turmoil that regime change in Iran would bring to the region" and how Israel might "capitalize on that power vacuum."