U.S. President Donald Trump is openly signaling an intent to take control of Greenland, a territory of Denmark, but analysts say that even if the United States were to control the area, securing as many rare earths as hoped would not be easy.
As U.S.-China trade tensions intensified after the launch of the Trump second administration in Jan. last year, and China tightened controls on rare earth exports, the Trump administration has focused its efforts on shaking the global rare earth supply chain dominated by China. To that end, the United States has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in mineral-related corporations to secure equity.
Some interpret the administration's recent show of intent to control Greenland as an extension of this approach. Greenland is known to have large deposits of rare earths essential to high-tech industries. Greenland's rare earth reserves are about 1.5 million tons, the eighth largest in the world.
However, due to the harsh natural environment, most assessments hold that actual rare earth mining would be extremely difficult even if the United States controlled Greenland. According to CNN on the 2nd (local time), most of Greenland's major mineral deposits are on the outer edges of the Arctic Circle. The area is covered by polar ice sheets about 1 mile (about 1.6 km) thick and has an extreme environment with darkness prevailing for most of the year.
Because of these barriers, mineral extraction in Greenland carries enormous expense and is seen as impractical. CNN said, "The fact that Denmark owns Greenland is not the key factor blocking U.S. resource development," adding, "The real obstacle is the harsh Arctic environment."
Earlier, the Associated Press also reported on the 11th that it could take years for Greenland to actually produce rare earths, and it may never be possible. The Associated Press said, "Attempts to mine Greenland's rare earths largely remain in the exploration stage."
Infrastructure to support mine development is virtually nonexistent. Diogo Rosa, a researcher at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, told the Associated Press, "Even in the relatively populated south, there are hardly any roads and no railways at all," adding, "Any mining project would have to build access infrastructure from scratch." He added that power would also have to be generated locally, and skilled professionals would have to be brought in from outside.
Given the harsh natural environment and poor infrastructure, attracting investment from private corporations, which is essential for mine development, is also expected to be virtually impossible. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said, "If there were a 'pot of gold' at the end of Greenland's rainbow, private corporations would already be heading there," noting that proving the business case for the massive upfront investment needed for mineral extraction is extremely difficult.
Some argue that climate change could improve mining conditions in Greenland, but CNN also assessed this as having low feasibility. While some sea routes have opened as glaciers melt, the ground has become unstable, making drilling more difficult and increasing the risk of landslides. Malte Humpert, founder of the Washington-based think tank Arctic Institute, said, "Climate change does not mean the situation gets easier. It only means a little less ice."
Given the practical challenges of rare earth mining, the argument is gaining traction that the main reason President Trump wants Greenland is not rare earths but a reshaping of power competition and security strategy around the Arctic. A key strategic point for North Atlantic defense, Greenland is a chokepoint that Russia's Northern Fleet nuclear submarines must pass to enter the Atlantic, and it is also a core hub for China's "Polar Silk Road," which seeks to expand economic and military influence using Arctic routes. On the 4th, Trump also said, "Greenland is essential for national security, but Russian and Chinese vessels are swarming around Greenland," expressing concern about Chinese and Russian influence over Greenland.
The Associated Press reported, "The reason President Trump is fixated on the island nation is more likely to be checking Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic than securing rare earths."