Cuba, facing an energy crisis because of the U.S. blockade on Venezuela's oil exports, appears to be easing some of the supply shock by sharply increasing imports of Mexican crude. U.S. President Donald Trump said Cuba is "ready to fall," but assessments say it is hard to conclude the situation has reached the worst stage yet.
On the 6th (local time), oil data analytics firm Kpler said Mexico exported an average of 12,284 barrels of crude a day to Cuba last year. That was up 56% from a year earlier, and Mexican crude accounted for about 44% of Cuba's total crude imports. By contrast, Venezuela, long the largest supplier, provided only an average of 9,528 barrels a day, with its share of Cuba's crude imports falling to 34%.
In fact, the volume of Mexican crude flowing into Cuba may be even larger. In a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in December last year, state oil company Pemex said its subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar exported to Cuba an average of 17,200 barrels of crude a day and 2,000 barrels of oil products over the nine months through September last year. That exceeds the figures compiled by Kpler.
Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president, said last month that oil exports to Cuba were "carried out within the legal framework of a sovereign nation, and everything is legal."
It is true that Cuba's oil supply chain, heavily dependent on Venezuela, is wobbling as the United States moves to blockade Venezuelan tankers and arrests President Nicolás Maduro. But some expect Cuba to offset part of the shock from the Venezuela situation by receiving Mexican oil.
The Financial Times (FT) reported the same day in an article titled "Mexico overtakes Venezuela as Cuba's top oil supplier" that "the leftist Mexican government's increase in crude exports has played an important role in helping Cuba withstand the shock from the sharp drop in Venezuelan crude supplies."
Mexico has been a traditional ally that has supported Cuba since the early days of the Fidel Castro revolution. For many years, it has backed crisis-hit Cuba not only by supplying oil but also by employing medical personnel, a major source of foreign currency for Cuba. Cuba's economy now faces severe difficulties due to a drop in tourists, a shortage of foreign currency, and power outages occurring almost daily.
However, the fact that Mexico's oil support for Cuba is emerging as a diplomatic and trade flashpoint with the United States could become a variable for Cuba's oil supply chain. Ahead of this year's review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), voices in the U.S. Congress criticizing Mexico's oil exports to Cuba are growing louder.
According to the FT, Rep. Carlos Gimenez of Florida, a Republican of Cuban descent, warned that if the Sheinbaum government "continues to undermine U.S. policy by sending oil to Cuba's murderous dictatorship, there will be severe consequences for trade between our nations."
There are already signs that Mexico has begun to heed U.S. pressure. Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity, a nonprofit, cited customs data last year to say that shipments of oil from Mexico to Cuba accelerated at one point last summer and then declined after U.S. pressure was applied.