After the United States arrested Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, controversy erupted as a trader placed a large bet just before the U.S. surprise attack began.
According to Reuters and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 5th local time, a user on the U.S. prediction betting site "Polymarket" went all in with more than $20,000 (about 29 million won) on the wager "Maduro falls by January" on the night of the 2nd, just before the U.S. launched its surprise attack.
Starting Dec. 27 last year, the user had been placing small amounts on "Maduro's downfall," but put in more than half of the total stake of about $34,000 (about 48 million won) with exquisite timing.
After news broke of President Maduro's arrest, the user pocketed revenue of about $410,000 (about 600 million won), more than 10 times the amount wagered.
WSJ reported that as this transaction drew public attention, questions were being raised over whether someone used top-secret U.S. military operation information to reap short-term profit.
Until the user increased the stake, the likelihood of President Maduro being ousted was considered not very high. At the time, the betting contract on Polymarket for "Maduro ousted by Jan. 31" was 8 cents per contract. According to WSJ, that implies users were pricing the chance that President Maduro would lose power in January at about 8%.
The time when the user concentrated the $20,000 stake was between 8:38 p.m. and 9:58 p.m. on the 2nd. Then, 68 minutes later at 10:46 p.m., U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the military to strike.
The Trump administration, seeking the effect of surprise, reportedly shared the Venezuela attack plan only among a very small circle of top aides.
Trey Upshaw, founder of the startup Polysights, which provides analytics tools to Polysite users, said, "This is more likely insider transaction," adding, "It's a fairly large amount to put in at that price when there wasn't much related news."
After news of this transaction spread, Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres said he would introduce a bill this week explicitly banning elected federal officials, political appointees, and regular employees with access to nonpublic information from betting on "prediction markets."