Venezuela faces unprecedented uncertainty under a "presidential arrest." It is the first time since its founding in 1811, 215 years ago. On the 4th (local time), foreign media said explosive cheers and a chilling tension coexisted in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital.
This crisis goes beyond a simple leadership change. On the 3rd, for the first time in 36 years since Panama's Manuel Noriega in 1990, the United States directly arrested the leader of a sovereign state and brought the person to a U.S. court. U.S. President Donald Trump immediately said he would run the country himself "until an appropriate transfer of power is carried out." This is seen as signaling an intention to wield strong control over Venezuela's oil resources and reconstruction projects.
Although the United States declared it would manage the situation, Venezuela's administrative, public security, judicial, and military chains of command have not yet been handed over. The existing power apparatus remains intact. De facto power on the ground is still in the hands of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's closest ally. Vice President Rodríguez said "Maduro is the only president" and demanded his immediate release. At the same time, immediately after Maduro's arrest, she took an interim presidential oath at the Supreme Court and asserted continuity of power.
The pro-Maduro forces remaining in the United States and Venezuela have different calculations. The Trump administration aims to dramatically increase Venezuela's oil output. It plans to restore Venezuela's oil production, which has fallen by more than 1.5 million barrels a day, to previous levels by bringing in U.S. energy corporations such as Chevron. Trump also hinted at the possibility of additional strikes while mixing threats and inducements toward the current Rodríguez administration. If this stabilizes Venezuela's economy, the number of refugees flowing into the United States could fall significantly. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "the next two to three months are decisive," stressing transition management tied to U.S. national interests.
By contrast, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez seeks to retain de facto power as an extension of the Chavismo (socialist line) camp. Chavismo is the socialist governance system that dates back to the era of former Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez before Maduro. Like the Chinese Communist Party, it prioritizes continuity of power over leadership change. Experts said the system is built around not only the executive branch but also the military, intelligence services, judiciary, and the state oil company, so the disappearance of a single president does not collapse the system at once.
Vice President Rodríguez was recently named acting president by Venezuela's Supreme Court. Institutionally, she is tasked with managing the power vacuum. According to the leading Latin American outlet El Mundo, Rodríguez is known to prefer a "managed soft landing" over a "full regime change." The plan is to negotiate with the United States to avoid drug-related indictments and sanctions targeting the Chavismo camp and to attempt a system transition while maintaining her own power.
President Trump claims Rodríguez is showing a relatively flexible attitude toward talks. But it is unclear whether this scenario will actually work. The core of Chavismo's power lies in the military and public security apparatus. Within the executive branch, a hard-line military faction represented by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello maintains power rivaling the vice president's. The prevailing view is that without their consent, the vice president alone will find it difficult to enter any negotiations with the United States. For this reason, some analysts say the risk of clashes over power within Chavismo has actually risen during the transition.
Venezuela hosts multiple armed groups, from the pro-government militia "colectivos" to gangs specialized in drug trafficking, armed groups in the southern rural regions, and remnants of the Colombian guerrillas (ELN). The International Crisis Group (ICG) assessed that, amid regime collapse, these groups are likely to seize the power vacuum to expand their regional influence. The number of firearms circulating among civilians is estimated to exceed 6 million. The ICG warned, "If armed clashes spread inland, a refugee migration crisis will recur," adding, "Local clashes can rapidly escalate into nationwide turmoil."
The U.S. government has already considered these risks. The New York Times (NYT) reported that, based on a war game conducted by the Trump administration in Nov. last year, it concluded that armed groups would compete for power and prolonged turmoil was likely. According to the war game, Venezuela would plunge into severe chaos as multiple military factions, political camps, and guerrilla groups became entangled. It found that at least tens of thousands of troops would be needed for stabilization. Even so, experts said the United States likely carried out the operation because short-term political and diplomatic goals took precedence over the expense of long-term stability.
In Caracas, the mood on the ground was multifaceted. Reuters reported that citizens carrying U.S. and Venezuelan flags gathered in a downtown Caracas square, shouting for freedom and dancing. More than 80% of Venezuela's population lives below the poverty line. Since Maduro took power, inflation has soared to the point that it is impossible to calculate. The cheering citizens see the United States as a lifeline that will rescue them from poverty.
But outside the square, Reuters said fear led by pro-government armed groups still dominates the city. The United States expects Venezuela's internal militias to number as many as 600,000. If they were to launch urban warfare all at once, Venezuela could become a second Syria or Iraq.
The prospect the United States hopes for—"a formal presidential election through proper voting"—is also uncertain. Opposition leader and last year's Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado has more than 70% support locally. But the opposition has no control over the state. Key assets such as ports and airports, military bases, broadcasting, and the power grid are still monopolized by the Chavismo camp. If an election is forced under these conditions, clashes over the results could amplify instability.
Experts warned that unless a significant share of Chavismo's bureaucrats, local power, and security apparatus is absorbed or managed, a democratic transition could run aground. Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the ICG, said, "If anyone thought a few bombs would force the Maduro camp to yield and bring peace, that was a miscalculation," adding, "Without additional steps such as securing public safety, forming a transitional coalition, and external guarantees, violence is inevitable."