As U.S. troops carried out a surprise airstrike on Venezuela on the 3rd (local time) and arrested and transferred President Nicolás Maduro, attention is focusing on the backdrop. President Donald Trump held a news conference that morning at his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, and said it was an operation to bring the illegal dictator Nicolás Maduro to justice. Trump put the drug issue forward as the ostensible reason, but experts are offering a range of interpretations.
◇ Trump: "Indicted for deadly drug trafficking… will face judicial punishment"
The reason President Trump cited at the news conference for transferring President Maduro was drug trafficking. Trump said, "Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were arrested together and will now face the U.S. justice system," adding, "Maduro and Flores have been indicted in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York for deadly drug trafficking targeting the United States."
In March 2020, during Trump's first term, U.S. federal prosecutors indicted President Maduro on charges of drug trafficking and money laundering, making headlines for charging a sitting head of state. However, the leading cause of drug deaths in the United States is not Venezuelan cocaine but fentanyl from China and Mexico. That is why there is talk that the operation may have been for reasons other than a drug crackdown.
◇ Attempt to oust Maduro 7 years ago as well… "Unclear whether it's over drugs or an attempt at regime change"
John Bolton, former U.N. ambassador who served as national security adviser during Trump's first term, said in a NewsNation interview that it remains unclear whether the real purpose of the operation is the illegal drug problem or an attempt at regime change.
Trump was also known to have sought to oust President Maduro in 2019. The plan came to light when John Bolton said in a 2022 CNN interview that the United States helped plan coups in foreign countries during Trump's tenure.
At the time, former Minister Bolton said of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol that it was not a carefully planned coup, noting that as someone who helped plan coups elsewhere, coups require a lot of work. When the host asked what coups he meant, he said only that he would not mention specifics, but that there clearly were some.
Major foreign media interpreted Bolton's remarks as referring to the 2019 attempt at a coup in Venezuela. At the time, Venezuela's opposition put forward National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó in a failed bid to oust President Nicolás Maduro at the start of his second term, and former President Trump supported Guaidó.
◇ Venezuela holds the world's largest crude reserves… also seen as a move to grant stakes to U.S. oil corporations
Some point to oil as a key reason. Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of oil reserves, the largest crude reserves in the world. But the country's actual oil output is extremely low by comparison.
According to the International Energy Agency's latest oil market report, Venezuela produced about 860,000 barrels per day in November last year. That is less than one-third of its level a decade ago and accounts for under 1% of global oil consumption. The previous president, Hugo Chávez, and then the Maduro administration tightened control over state oil company PDVSA, prompting an exodus of experienced staff.
While some Western oil companies, including the U.S. corporation Chevron, still operate in Venezuela, their operations have been greatly scaled back as the United States expanded sanctions and sought to choke off crude supplies, the key economic lifeline of the Maduro government.
Some also interpret the United States as seeking to secure leverage over Venezuela because of its crude reserves. Recently, the Trump administration sank a vessel suspected of being a drug-running ship off Venezuela and seized an oil tanker.
On the 17th of last month, Trump told reporters, "We had a lot of oil there (Venezuela), but they drove our companies out and stripped us of our rights. We want to get that back." During the Hugo Chávez administration, Venezuela nationalized its oil fields, which was interpreted as meaning that U.S. corporations that invested there at the time want compensation for their losses.
In fact, at the news conference, Trump also said U.S. oil corporations would step in to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry. "Venezuela's oil business has been completely ruined for a long time," Trump said. "Comparing what they could have produced with what they actually produced, they produced almost nothing."
He added, "Now the world's largest U.S. oil corporations will invest billions of dollars to repair the broken oil infrastructure and start generating revenue for this country." Even though Trump emphasized revenue generation for Venezuela, this is being interpreted as a move to grant stakes to U.S. oil corporations.
Meanwhile, the arrest and transfer of President Maduro carried out by the United States is drawing criticism as a violation of international law. However, to argue it did not violate international law, the United States is highlighting that Maduro is a defendant in a U.S. criminal case with a $50 million bounty on him. The arresting authority was also the U.S. State Department.