It has been 10 years since China officially scrapped the so-called one-child policy, but there has been no rebound in the birthrate, and policies to encourage childbirth have failed to gain public support, according to assessments. Analysts said the aftereffects of decades of state-imposed birth limits, combined with economic burdens and shifting social perceptions, are locking in a trend of population decline.
According to CNN on the 1st (local time), since abolishing the one-child policy in 2016, the Chinese government has allowed second and third births and introduced various incentives, but the population has fallen for three straight years since 2022. The number of births in 2024 rose slightly but did not offset the number of deaths. More than 20% of China's population is now age 60 or older, and the United Nations projected that by 2100 the share of older people could reach half.
Welkin Lei, 30, an office worker living in Beijing, said, "I'm considering having a second child, but the cost of child-rearing and the burden of supporting parents are major hurdles." The dual-income worker noted, "We have to weigh childcare gaps, care for elderly parents, and long-term financial burdens all at once." Observers say such concerns are not just personal issues but a snapshot of the most pressing structural challenge facing China's leadership.
President Xi Jinping has emphasized "population security," elevating childbirth and marriage to core state tasks. Over the past decade, China has piloted various policies, including tax cuts, cash subsidies, support for buying and renting dwellings, and expanded maternity leave. Recently, it began providing 3,600 yuan (about 700,000 won) a year to households with children under age 3, streamlined marriage registration procedures, and pursued a free public kindergarten system. Beijing also announced plans to eliminate individuals' out-of-pocket expense for hospital deliveries by this year.
Still, many said the impact is barely felt. China is considered one of the countries with high child-rearing costs, and in major cities, critics said government subsidies are a drop in the bucket. The recent move to begin levying value-added taxes on condoms and contraceptives was read as a symbolic sign of the government's intent to encourage births, but it also drew backlash for increasing everyday burdens.
Experts said the stagnation in the birthrate stems not from weak policy intensity but from structural constraints. High youth unemployment, housing costs, and an unstable job market are delaying or discouraging marriage and childbirth. In particular, the concentration of child-rearing responsibilities on women and fears of career breaks were cited as factors deepening aversion to having children.
The legacy of the one-child policy is still at work. A generation that grew up without siblings is shouldering parental support alone, and in regions without adequate social safety nets, analysts said anxiety about old age is leading to avoiding childbirth. Some young people are said to have already internalized the idea that "having only one child is also a desirable way of life."
After the lockdown period during the COVID-19 pandemic, distrust in the future spread further. The slogan "We are the last generation," which circulated online during Shanghai's citywide lockdown, encapsulated the despair of young people who feel they can no longer take responsibility for the next generation in an unstable society. Observers said this symbolically revealed the spread of a sentiment that views childbirth not as a personal life choice but as a social burden that is hard to bear.
Experts believe that complementary measures such as pension reform, raising the retirement age, and robot automation can mitigate the shock of population decline but are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the birthrate downturn. An economist in Shanghai diagnosed the decline in the birthrate as structurally entrenched, saying, "If the policy had changed 20 years ago, it could have been different, but now it's too late."