Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled up his sleeves to directly mediate the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute that U.S. President Donald Trump had worked on but ultimately failed to resolve.
According to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency, the AP, and the Bangkok Post on the 30th, China held a three-way foreign ministers' meeting the previous day in Yuxi, Yunnan province, produced a 16-point peace plan, and agreed to a cease-fire. The deal included items such as an immediate cease-fire, a 72-hour cooling-off period, and the repatriation of 18 Cambodian soldiers captured as prisoners.
The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute is a deep-rooted conflict that goes back to the 1962 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In particular, the dispute over territorial rights around the 11th-century Hindu temple of Preah Vihear has long stirred nationalism in both countries. In the past, ASEAN and the United Nations tried to mediate the conflict but repeatedly hit limits.
This latest flare-up began in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish near the temple. By late July, two months later, the dispute escalated into full-scale war. Around that time, 48 people were killed over five days and 300,000 fled bombardment. As the crisis intensified, President Trump intervened directly, and on Oct. 26 the two countries issued a joint peace declaration.
The Trump administration's mediation style was rough. The administration used tariff threats and political pressure to bring Thai and Cambodian leaders to the negotiating table. Experts said U.S. diplomats were overly fixated on short-term effects. The Bangkok Post reported, "Although the October joint peace declaration came through U.S. mediation, there were no discussions on issues such as land mines along the 817 km-long disputed border rent(expense) or on practical communication channels among military commanders." As a result, gunfire resumed in the border area earlier this month. This time, in just three weeks, 101 people were killed—nearly twice as many as before—and more than 500,000 refugees fled.
Unlike the United States, China brought not only diplomats but also a large number of military authorities from all three countries to the Yunnan talks on the 29th. Instead of simply stamping a cease-fire on paper, it bundled the two militaries' demands into a prescription with 16 peace provisions. The Diplomat, a foreign affairs outlet, reported that these included operational military details such as designated points for heavy weapons withdrawal, no-fly zones for drones, and a cooperative body for demining. Citing experts, The Diplomat analyzed, "China applied an 'Asian way' to mediation that focuses on restoring relationships and practical management rather than Western-style legal binding force," adding, "This strategy fit the instincts of Southeast Asian military elites, who value practical interests over principle."
The main agreements reached at the talks are as follows. First is an "irreversible cease-fire" that does not revert to armed clashes under any circumstances. Second, the two countries agreed to activate a humanitarian roadmap to ensure the safe return of hundreds of thousands of refugees, including civilians and displaced people. Lastly, they agreed to regularly convene a "Joint Border Commission (GBC)" to address the demarcation issue identified as the root cause of the border dispute. In the process, China appeared to shift responsibility to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) while also securing a practical role by participating in the commission as a monitoring group for cease-fire implementation.
During the mediation, China also offered economic compensation that the United States did not provide. According to the state-run China Daily, China promised massive Vice Minister to rebuild border infrastructure between Thailand and Cambodia destroyed in the conflict. In particular, China's policy banks agreed to provide low-interest financing for projects connecting the two countries' rail and road networks. Compared with the modest "tariff sanctions deferral" the United States offered, the tangible gains for both countries grew much larger. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs chief Wang Yi emphasized, "Putting the past behind and gradually building trust is the only way."
In concrete terms, China already wields far greater influence over the two countries than the United States. This year, annual trade between China and Thailand is about $114 billion (about 163 trillion won). China is Thailand's No. 1 trading partner for both exports and imports. Cambodia is highly dependent on China, whose capital accounts for more than 40% of gross domestic product (GDP). China brandished both a stick—threatening to cut supply chains if the conflict continued—and a carrot—promising to connect the two countries through logistics if they signed for peace. Xu Liping, a chief researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, "China is practicing a 'development peace theory' that builds security through development," adding, "It helped the mediation that both Thailand and Cambodia are core countries in the 'Lancang-Mekong cooperation.'"
Thailand, traditionally a U.S. security ally, also appears to have chosen China for practical gains. Experts said Thailand's military and elite circles were fatigued by various sanctions the U.S. administration imposed under the pretext of demands for democracy and human rights issues. China, by contrast, adheres to a so-called noninterference principle that does not question internal affairs. From Thailand's perspective, China is a more comfortable partner that refrains from criticizing its political system while delivering economic benefits.
Neil Laughlin, a political science professor at the University of London in the United Kingdom, said, "China bought peace by targeting the wallets of political and military elites in Thailand and Cambodia," and noted, "Unless the fundamental territorial issues rampant in the border rent(expense) are resolved, the peace achieved through this mediation could break at any time if China's influence wanes."