The number of people trying to immigrate to Canada via the United States has dropped sharply. As recently as the summer, thousands tried to cross into Canada, but in less than half a year the situation has changed significantly.
On the 22nd, Bloomberg said that asylum seekers entering Canada through upstate New York have fallen sharply, adding that the likelihood that migrants will be sent back to the United States has increased, in which case they could be detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
According to government data obtained by Bloomberg, asylum applications filed in November at Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle, a major border crossing in Quebec, totaled 518, down 19% from 637 a year earlier. The number of applications in the area nearly doubled year over year from March to August this year, averaging more than 1,900 a month, but for the first time since February it turned to a year-over-year decline.
Total asylum applications also fell. According to the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), total asylum applications processed from January through November this year were 31,977, down 42% from the same period a year earlier. This is seen as the result of the Canadian government tightening its review of temporary resident visa applications. A Spokesperson for the immigration department said it is screening out so-called "insincere visitors" who enter for one stated purpose but then file for asylum after arrival.
Quebec has long been a favored destination for asylum seekers within Canada. At most borders, under the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA), refugee claimants who have left their home country are required to apply for asylum in the first safe country they reach. Accordingly, for those seeking to enter Canada via the United States from another continent, in principle they must first apply for asylum in the United States.
In southern Quebec, where forests and farmland stretch wide, border management, surveillance and checkpoints are relatively lax, leaving many informal crossings that can avoid the STCA's application. In addition, for migrants from Haiti and some African countries that were once under French rule, Quebec has been regarded as a place with many French speakers and well-established immigrant communities.
Canada has long urged the United States to apply the STCA to migrants entering through poorly monitored crossings, and as a result, when the agreement was amended in 2023, seeking asylum through unofficial crossings became effectively difficult. On top of that, since Prime Minister Mark Carney took office and further tightened policies on permanent residents and temporary immigrants, immigration to Canada through legal channels has also become more demanding.
Stéphanie Valois, a Montreal-based immigration lawyer with about 30 years of experience, said she rarely sees people trying to cross the border unless they clearly qualify under the STCA's family exception, adding that even those exceptions are subject to very strict scrutiny. STCA exceptions apply in limited cases such as having close family in Canada, being a minor, or holding certain travel documents.
In practice, some immigrants are being returned to the United States and detained even though they have family in Canada. That is because many asylum seekers are from countries such as Haiti and Yemen where administrative systems are not well established, and they often lack sufficient documents to prove family ties. CBSA Spokesperson Luke Reimer explained, When seeking asylum in Canada on the basis of family relationship, the officer must be satisfied that the family relationship likely exists and that the relative holds the required status to remain.
Lawyers who assist asylum seekers say the atmosphere on the ground has clearly become stricter. Mario Bellissimo, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer, said the practical message being sent to asylum seekers is clear: the likelihood of being deemed ineligible and returned to the United States has risen significantly, and as a result the risk of being subject to U.S. immigration enforcement and detention is also very high.