The Japanese government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is accelerating the military buildup it has pledged. Japan is pouring large-scale resources into strengthening its military, including moving up its plan to allocate more than 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) to defense.
On the 22nd, The Washington Post (WP) reported, "Japan's parliament approved a record defense budget, assigning 2% of GDP to military spending two years earlier than originally planned," adding, "This reflects a situation in which the Donald Trump administration is asking allies to shoulder more of the expense of their own defense amid rising regional security threats."
Earlier, the House of Councilors passed a supplementary budget totaling 18.3034 trillion yen (about 173 trillion won), including increases in defense outlays compiled by the Takaichi administration. Through this extra budget, the government raised annual defense spending to about 11 trillion yen (about 104 trillion won), moving up the point when defense reaches 2% of GDP by two years, from fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2025.
Given that Japan has limited defense spending to around 1% of GDP for decades to uphold postwar pacifist norms, this increase is seen as an exceptional shift. Mira Rapp-Hooper, former Director-General at the White House National Security Council (NSC), said, "For Japan, the 2% of GDP goal was a very complex task in itself," adding, "Even so, bringing it forward by two years and keeping an even higher level in mind was hard to imagine just a few years ago."
According to WP, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has used "2% of GDP for defense spending" as a benchmark for how seriously countries approach defense. The increase shows that Japan's internal and external security environment is worsening. China has continued to build up its military and has repeatedly violated Japan's territorial waters and airspace, and late last month, after Prime Minister Takaichi hinted at the "possibility of involvement in a Taiwan contingency," tensions between China and Japan escalated and a Chinese military fighter jet illuminated a Japan Self-Defense Forces aircraft with radar.
On top of that, even the United States, Japan's longtime ally, has taken a transactional posture toward Japan since the launch of the Trump administration. In October, President Trump described his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "G2," publicly characterizing the United States and China as peers, and pressed Japan to increase defense spending. As a result, concern is growing in Japan, which has maintained a security alliance with the United States for more than 70 years, that Japan's interests could be sacrificed in U.S.-China negotiations, WP said.
Jinbo Ken, an international security expert at Keio University, said, "The United States no longer sees it as necessary to intervene in conflicts that do not directly affect its core national interests," adding, "This raises questions for Japan about whether the security alliance with the United States can continue to serve as a source of stable defense and deterrence."
Amid this unstable diplomatic and security environment, Japan is also moving aggressively to strengthen its defense technology capabilities. According to WP, Japan is upgrading existing assets such as Aegis destroyers and Patriot interceptor missiles based on U.S. technology, while introducing new systems to bolster integrated air and missile defense. A representative example is deploying a drone "shield" that uses unmanned assets in the air and undersea to collect information and detect threats early.
Even as conflicts with neighboring countries continue, Prime Minister Takaichi's approval rating is soaring, buoyed by the so-called line for "a stronger Japan." According to a public opinion poll released on the 22nd by Yomiuri Shimbun (survey period: the 19th to the 21st), the Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating was 73%, up 1 percentage point from the previous survey (Nov. 21 to 23). This is a record high since the Takaichi Cabinet was launched in Oct. Typically, about two months after a cabinet launch, the so-called honeymoon period ends and approval ratings often fall.
Amid China-Japan tensions, Japan's move to strengthen its defense is lending momentum to the possibility of amending the so-called "peace constitution." The Takaichi Cabinet and the governing coalition are already pushing to ease restrictions on exporting lethal weapons that could conflict with the spirit of the peace constitution. Ishida Atsushi, a professor of international politics and peace studies at the University of Tokyo, said that exclusive defense (the principle of exercising defense power only when attacked) based on the peace constitution is "at a crossroads," adding, "There is a high risk of an arms race intensifying, and an unintended war could occur due to misperception or error by hostile forces."