The Cabinet approval rating led by Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has continued a high-altitude run, hovering above 70% for three consecutive months since its launch. Since taking office in Oct., the Takaichi Cabinet has gained public support on major issues such as a hard-line stance toward China and an interest rate hike, laying the groundwork for a long-term hold on power, according to assessments.
According to local media including the Yomiuri Shimbun and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) on the 22nd, the Dec. opinion polls showed the Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating at 67% to 75%. In a survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun from the 19th to the 21st, the approval rating was tallied at 73%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month. This is the third case since the 1978 Ohira Masayoshi Cabinet to maintain over 70% even two months after launch. The only Cabinets to have achieved this record previously were the 1993 Hosokawa Morihiro Cabinet and the 2001 Koizumi Junichiro Cabinet.
In a joint survey by Nikkei and TV Tokyo, the approval rating also came in at 75%, holding steady from the previous month. The Asahi Shimbun survey showed 68%, and the Mainichi Shimbun survey showed 67%. In surveys by all major outlets, the figures approached or exceeded 70%, proving broad popularity. As reasons for supporting the Cabinet, trust in character (41%) and leadership (38%) ranked at the top.
Political circles analyzed that the prime minister's hard-line posture in foreign policy has driven the approval ratings. After the prime minister hinted on the 7th of last month at the possibility of involvement in a Taiwan contingency, China-Japan tensions rose, but public opinion viewed this as a positive factor. According to the Asahi Shimbun, 55% of respondents said they "positively evaluate the prime minister's stance toward China." In particular, regarding the zero-panda situation of pandas disappearing in Japan due to the return of pandas at Ueno Zoo, 70% responded that there is "no need to seek cooperation from China." Experts said this reflects public sentiment to move away from a submissive diplomacy toward China.
Assessments of economic policy are also positive. Regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike decision, 55% of respondents evaluated it positively. However, concerns were raised about the economic damage from worsening China-Japan relations. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they worry about the economic impact of deteriorating ties, 8 percentage points higher than those who do not worry (45%).
Experts predicted that the Takaichi Cabinet's stable approval rating will translate into policy-driving power. Nikkei noted that many respondents cited "leadership" as the reason for supporting the Cabinet in this survey, analyzing that this will bolster the Cabinet's policy direction.
Setting relations with the United States was also cited as one of the key variables. Amid shifting international dynamics, attention is on how remarks by Prime Minister Takaichi hinting at considering nuclear armament will affect approval ratings going forward. The Mainichi Shimbun reported that the United States indirectly expressed concern over recent remarks by a senior Japanese official about nuclear armament, indirectly suggesting the complexity of external relations.
For the time being, the Takaichi Cabinet is expected to push ahead with a hard-line stance toward China and policies to normalize the economy on the back of high approval ratings. However, balancing the security risks and economic impacts triggered by remarks about a Taiwan contingency is cited as a task ahead.