As the United States has effectively blockaded tankers going to and from Venezuela, forecasts are emerging that Cuba, which has been heavily dependent on Venezuela economically, will take a direct hit.
On the 21st, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said, "Cuba, ruled by a communist regime, was already suffering from food shortages, frequent blackouts, and an exodus," adding, "Now the situation is likely to get even worse." Earlier, Reuters also reported, "Venezuelan crude is a key supply source that supports Cuba's power grid," and "the latest U.S. measure will further worsen Cuba's situation, which is already struggling with a lack of oil."
Cuba's economic blow began in earnest as the United States started tightening Venezuela's oil shipments. The U.S. administration of Donald Trump has been detaining sanctioned tankers since the 10th to pressure the Venezuelan government. These tankers had handled about 70% of Venezuela's crude exports. On the same day, the U.S. Coast Guard also seized one sanctioned tanker in waters near Venezuela, leading to assessments that Venezuela's oil supply chain is effectively collapsing.
Cuba has been heavily dependent on Venezuela economically since 1999, when then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez declared that the two countries were "bound by a sea of happiness." During the Chávez regime, Cuba sent counterintelligence agents and others to Venezuela to root out dissidents, and Venezuela responded by supplying Cuba with 100,000 barrels of oil a day. Although import volumes have decreased now, about 40% of the oil Cuba imports is still Venezuelan.
WSJ reported that Venezuelan crude is essential to Cuba's power plants, transportation, and small-scale self-employed institutional sector. According to Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, from January to November this year Venezuela exported to Cuba an average of 27,000 barrels per day of crude and fuel, a 16% decrease from an average of 32,000 barrels per day during the same period last year. Ricardo Torres Pérez, a Cuban economist at American University, said, "If shipments continue to decline over the next few weeks or months, Cuba will no longer be able to hold on."
What's more, Cuba's economy was already severely shaken. According to a survey by the think tank Observatory of Social Rights, nearly 90% of Cuba's population lives in extreme poverty, and 70% have experienced going without at least one meal a day. In some regions, blackouts lasted more than 18 hours a day. As a result, 2.7 million people, about a quarter of Cuba's population since 2020, have left Cuba.
Jorge Piñón, a Cuban exile at the University of Texas at Austin who studies energy relations between Cuba and Venezuela, warned that if shipments of Venezuelan oil are halted or plummet, it will "without a doubt lead to the collapse of Cuba's economy."
Cuba's regime is also showing displeasure toward the United States. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel recently said at the Communist Party Central Committee, "Donald Trump, like a vulgar thief, attacked Venezuelan tankers like a pirate and brazenly seized their cargo," adding, "The enemy's rule is that there are no rules."
Earlier, Cuba's Foreign Ministry also criticized in a statement on the 10th, when the United States seized the tanker Skipper, calling it "an act of piracy and maritime terror," and "part of the United States' intensified pressure to hinder Venezuela's legitimate right to use its natural resources freely and to engage in transactions with other countries, especially the supply of hydrocarbons bound for Cuba." It added that the U.S. measure "will have a negative impact on Cuba."