The three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, located on Europe's front line, are effectively moving into a quasi-wartime footing amid Russia's continued threats and the protracted war in Ukraine. Residents are preparing for the possibility of war in their daily lives while also reporting a complex set of difficulties, including distrust of the government and economic shocks.
On the 8th (local time), Bloomberg said the three Baltic states are recently on heightened alert and preparing for wartime conditions across the military, economy and society. These countries share roughly 1,000 kilometers of border with Russia and Belarus and are considered the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) front line. NATO and various think tanks often single them out as the "flashpoint of the next war."
In particular, Narva, a northeastern Estonian border city, is one of the most frequently cited potential conflict zones in recent war scenarios. It borders Russia, and most residents speak Russian. For example, the scenario in which Russia's little green men—soldiers with their faces covered so their affiliation is unknown—cross the border to sow chaos in the area has been discussed so frequently that it has earned the nickname "Narva Next."
In reality, an extreme sense of tension pervades Narva as a whole. The road known as the Friendship Bridge connecting to Russia's Ivangorod has been sealed with concrete barriers, barbed wire and locks, and with the border controlled, only pedestrians, not vehicles, are moving along a narrow metal passage. Narva Mayor Katri Raik said, "Residents are suspicious of one another and, further, even of the government."
Aluksne in eastern Latvia is in a similar situation. The area lies a little over 20 kilometers from the Russian border, and the scars of war remain deep, with traces of a Soviet-era missile base still left as debris in the forest. Ukrainian flags hang throughout the town, and Mayor Jintaras Adlers said, "We are watching the situation to the east every day."
Lithuania is also classified as an area at high risk of invasion. The capital, Vilnius, is about 30 kilometers from pro-Russia Belarus, and across the border sits the Astravets nuclear power plant built by Russia's state-owned company Rosatom. In some quarters, there are even lectures teaching private civil defense training tips.
In response, the Lithuanian government is institutionalizing large-scale drills premised on a full-scale invasion. Preparing a "72-hour survival bag" with emergency food and basic medicine is already a routine recommendation, and siren drills and emergency broadcast tests for the public are repeated. Earlier, in Oct., the Vilnius city government conducted a full-scale evacuation drill premised on a Russian invasion, practicing under military protection as residents moved along actual evacuation routes.
Experts, however, say efforts to bolster internal cohesion and trust in government must go hand in hand with physical preparations. In reality, some cities have a high proportion of ethnic Russians and everyday use of Russian, and more than a decade of Russia-origin cyberattacks and propaganda has entrenched deep distrust that there are "forces colluding with the Kremlin."
Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte argued that the government must consistently deliver warning messages to citizens. Simonyte said, "Not a single word about war will come up among people drinking cocktails on a summer evening," but added, "The government needs to instill in the public the perception that 'the crisis is real and we must prepare.'"