China's exports returned to growth last month, pushing the cumulative surplus past $1 trillion. China's exports had fallen sharply as it traded retaliatory measures with the United States up until Oct. 30, just before the U.S.-China summit, but indicators improved in November after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at the summit to refrain from escalation.
On the morning of the 8th (local time), China's General Administration of Customs said exports in November rose 5.9% from a year earlier. That was a sharp improvement from a 1.1% drop in October and beat the 3.8%–4% increase expected by Reuters and Bloomberg.
Imports rose only 1.9%. That was up from a 1% increase the previous month but below market expectations for a 2.5%–3% rise. The trade surplus this month was $111.68 billion (about 164 trillion won), up 24% from the previous month's $90.07 billion (about 132 trillion won).
From January to November on a cumulative basis, exports rose 5.4% from a year earlier while imports fell 0.6%. The cumulative trade surplus was $1.076 trillion (about 1,582 trillion won), up 21.6%.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that "the rebound in exports in November will help ease weak domestic demand," adding, "China appears on track to achieve this year's government target of 'around 5% growth.' The upcoming Politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference will flesh out the policy direction for 2026."
Foreign media said the U.S.-China summit held in Busan on Oct. 30 and a leaders' phone call in November served as a turning point for the export recovery, and that China's export diversification strategy also paid off.
CNBC said, "Since the truce, the U.S. tariff rate on China has held around 47.5%, while China's tariff rate on the U.S. has stayed around 32%," adding, "Following the summit between the world's two largest economies and their trade agreement, manufacturers rushed to ship inventories to seize the opportunity to ease tensions, helping China's exports recover. Although the yuan has strengthened in recent weeks, China's export momentum does not appear to have slowed significantly."
However, exports to the United States continued to plunge. China's exports to the U.S. in November fell 28.6%, the steepest drop since August and the eighth straight month of double-digit declines. Instead, exports to regions such as the European Union (EU), Africa and Latin America rose sharply, filling the gap. According to Bloomberg, exports to the EU rose by nearly 15%, the biggest increase since July 2022, while exports to Africa jumped about 28%. Lin Song, senior economist at ING, told Bloomberg that "the rebound in exports to the EU and Japan is somewhat surprising."