China's major airlines have extended the period for free cancellations and changes on flights to Japan through the end of March next year. After Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made remarks last month hinting at potential Self-Defense Forces military involvement in the event of a "Taiwan contingency (emergency such as war)," the Chinese government has been steadily ratcheting up the intensity of its "ban on Japan" policy that closes off cultural exchanges with Japan.
On the 7th (local time), according to a roundup by Global Times (GT), the sister publication of the Chinese state-run Global Times, Bloomberg, and other foreign media, Chinese state-owned carriers including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced they will extend their free refund and change policy for tickets on routes to Japan through Mar. 28 next year. The measure had originally been set to end on Dec. 31 this year.
State-owned Air China said in an official website notice that the reason for the extension was "to respond to changing market demand and facilitate passenger convenience." The policy applies only to tickets issued before noon on Dec. 5. For flights to, from, and via Japan with travel dates before Mar. 28 next year, passengers can cancel or change their itineraries without fees.
Experts said the move is a China-specific pressure tactic that uses air travel as a tool of foreign policy. As of 2024, the number of Chinese tourists who visited Japan reached 6.9 million. China accounts for the largest share of Japan's tourism market.
Coming ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January next year, the extension appears intended to cut off demand for travel to Japan at the source. Even travelers who had been waiting to see if relations between the two countries would improve by the end of this year are likely to pull out in large numbers. An industry official said, "Extending the free cancellation period by three months effectively means controlling flights to Japan through next spring's cherry blossom season, the peak travel period," adding, "A quick recovery in relations appears unlikely."
Foreign media have labeled this the "Takaichi fallout." Prime Minister Takaichi recently made remarks hinting at the possibility of Japan's Self-Defense Forces intervening in a Taiwan Strait crisis. Since World War II, this is the first time a Japanese prime minister has directly linked the Taiwan issue with a Self-Defense Forces dispatch.
Since then, the Chinese government has been pressuring Japan on a national level day after day. State-run outlets including People's Daily, Xinhua News Agency, Global Times, and CCTV are mobilizing military experts and scholars to escalate their criticism of Japan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the Ministry of Education, and the Chinese Embassy in Japan have simultaneously issued travel and study-abroad warnings for Japan since mid-last month.
According to state-run CCTV, more than 1,900 China-to-Japan flights were canceled in December alone. That figure approaches 40% of all scheduled flights. Flight Master, an aviation information site, projected that the cancellation rate on China–Japan routes in December would surge to 26.4%.
CGTN reported that in the days following Takaichi's remarks, Chinese airlines canceled dozens of routes to Japan and roughly 500,000 bookings vanished. Major large travel agencies in China have already halted sales of travel packages to Japan. Kansai Airport Group Chairman Yamaya Yoshiyuki said, "Flights connecting mainland China and Kansai International Airport will decrease by 34% in just the second week of December," adding, "This impact will continue for the time being."