China's major airlines have extended the period for free cancellations and changes on flights to Japan through the end of March next year. After Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last month hinted at "armed intervention by the Self-Defense Forces in the event of a Taiwan contingency (such as war or other emergencies)," the Chinese government has been steadily ratcheting up the intensity of its "anti-Japan order" to shut down cultural exchanges with Japan.
On the 7th (local time), according to a roundup by the Global Times (GT), the sister paper of China's state-run Global Times, Bloomberg and other foreign media, Chinese state-owned carriers including Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines announced they will extend their free refund and change policy for tickets on Japan routes through Mar. 28 next year. The measure had originally been set to end on Dec. 31 this year.
State-owned Air China said in an official website notice that the reason for the extension was "to respond to changing market demand and help passenger convenience." The policy applies only to tickets issued before noon on Dec. 5. For flights to and from Japan, as well as transits, with travel dates before Mar. 28 next year, passengers can cancel or change without fees.
Experts said the move is a uniquely Chinese pressure tactic that uses air travel as a foreign policy tool. As of 2024, 6.9 million Chinese tourists visited Japan. China accounts for the largest share of Japan's tourism market.
Announced just ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January next year, the extension appears intended to cut off demand for travel to Japan at the source. Even travelers who had been waiting to see if relations would improve by year's end are likely to drop out in large numbers. An industry official said, "Extending the free cancellation period by three months effectively means controlling Japan-bound flights through next spring's cherry blossom season, the peak travel period," adding, "A quick recovery in relations seems unlikely."
Foreign media have dubbed this the "Takaichi fallout." Prime Minister Takaichi recently made remarks hinting at the possibility of Self-Defense Forces involvement in a Taiwan Strait crisis. This is the first time since World War II that a Japanese prime minister has explicitly linked the Taiwan issue with dispatching the Self-Defense Forces.
Since then, the Chinese government has been pressuring Japan at the national level day after day. State media including the People's Daily, Xinhua News Agency, Global Times and CCTV have mobilized military experts and scholars to ratchet up the criticism of Japan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the Ministry of Education, and the Chinese Embassy in Japan have simultaneously issued travel and study-abroad advisories on Japan since mid-last month.
According to a report by state-run CCTV, more than 1,900 China-to-Japan flights were canceled in December alone. That figure is close to 40% of all scheduled flights. Flight Master, an aviation information site, projected that the cancellation rate on China–Japan routes in December would soar to 26.4%.
CGTN reported that in the days following Takaichi's remarks, Chinese airlines canceled dozens of routes to Japan and roughly 500,000 bookings evaporated. Major large travel agencies in China have already halted sales of travel packages to Japan. Kansai Airports Group Chairman Yamaya Yoshiyuki said, "Flights connecting mainland China and Kansai International Airport will decrease by 34% in just the second week of December," adding, "This impact will continue for the time being."