An assessment has emerged that Ukraine is falling behind Russia even in drone warfare, which it has prided itself on as the "ultimate weapon" over the past four years. As Russia's drone capabilities have strengthened rapidly, the rear has come under threat, and analysts say this shift on the battlefield is working against Ukraine in both diplomacy and the military.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 29th (local time) that Russia has secured the initiative on the battlefield by sharply boosting its ability to operate small drones since this fall. Russian drones are showing superiority in both numbers and tactics across the front line, and they are repeatedly striking supply routes in the rear that the Ukrainian military had considered a "safe zone."
In particular, Rubicon, Russia's specialized drone unit, is disrupting Ukraine's supply system by bypassing infantry and concentrating strikes on medium-range targets more than 20 kilometers from the front line. The Russian military is also including drone units among its targets, forcing Ukrainian operators to launch drones from farther in the rear, which in turn limits their strike range.
Front-line troops and combat analysts cite the qualitative improvement in Russia's drone capabilities as the biggest change on the battlefield this year. They say losing the "initiative in drone warfare" is bringing about a far greater shift in the war situation than the gradual expansion of occupied territory.
This disadvantage is also affecting the diplomatic landscape. The WSJ said that around the Donald Trump U.S. administration, which is speeding up end-of-war talks, pressure is growing to accept conditions favorable to Russia, as questions are being raised about Ukraine's ability to sustain the war.
Inside Ukraine, a sense of crisis is deepening that territorial defense could become difficult if countermeasures are not prepared. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military (now ambassador to the United Kingdom), warned, "The concept that the rear is safe is collapsing," and said, "If we do not regain the initiative in drone warfare, we will face limits in conducting the war, compounded by a shortage of personnel."