Black Friday, the start of the biggest U.S. shopping season, has begun, but the scene feels very different from years past. Malls are crowded, yet few shoppers are actually walking out with purchases. Experts said a hard-line tariff policy has pushed up consumer goods prices, and stubbornly high inflation is weighing on sentiment. Retailers have trimmed discounts to protect margins. Unimpressed with the price tags, consumers are closing their wallets, saying there is "nothing worth buying" at the marquee event.
On Nov. 24, local time, Reuters and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that holiday shoppers this year are expected to hit a record high. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimated that 186.9 million people will shop over the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. That is about 3.5 million more than last year's 183.4 million.
The topline grew, but the substance shrank. The NRF projected that average per capita expenditure on gifts and seasonal items this year will be just $890, down 1.3% from last year's $902. Total sales for the year-end shopping season in November–December are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time, but growth is forecast to stay at 3.7%–4.2%, below last year's 4.8%.
Consumers cited two main reasons for holding back: fatigue from high inflation and economic uncertainty. A New York shopper told Reuters, "I'm not even looking at most Black Friday deals and plan to target only discounts on specific items I truly need," adding, "I spent $500 on gifts last year, but I slashed my budget to $300 this year."
The discount levels consumers feel have also fallen. Retailers, worried about eroding profitability, have cut back on the kind of dramatic doorbuster deals seen in the past. Edgar Dworsky, head of the consumer information site Consumer World, said, "It has become much harder this year to figure out when is the cheapest time to buy something."
According to Consumer World, in years past, major U.S. budget department stores such as Kohl's, JC Penney and Macy's sold small kitchen appliances for about $5 by combining coupons and rebates around this time. It was a strategy to clear remaining inventory and boost year-end revenue. This year, most of those discounts have disappeared. Kohl's is selling toasters and mixers at $9.99—twice the usual price—dropping rebate benefits and offering only a 15% off coupon.
Jessica Ramirez, head of the brand consulting firm Consumer Collective, said, "Promotions are noticeably fewer both online and offline this year," adding, "There were brief discounts in early November, but the markdowns were not deep, and full-price sales dominate now." Ramirez added, "Even when discounts appear, they are one-off promotions for only a short window, making it hard for consumers to benefit."
Given the circumstances, consumers have become more cautious. An NRF survey showed that about 66%, or two in three consumers, said they would "wait long enough before buying." That is up from 59% last year, which experts said reflects a mindset of trying to pay even less.
This Black Friday is the first since the second Donald Trump administration implemented a baseline 10% tariff on all imports this year. Since taking office, President Trump has consistently touted "America First" and either signaled or imposed high tariffs on imports. Citing experts, Reuters reported that retailers hit by tariffs have raised prices or narrowed discounts, making it harder for consumers to find the kinds of specials they used to see.
Retailers responded to higher tariffs by passing the expense on to consumer prices or by cutting marketing spend. That ultimately led to a disappearance of discounts. The Trump administration's tariff policy also added uncertainty to corporate supply chains. Concerns emerged that popular year-end gifts with high import dependence—apparel, appliances and toys—could face supply disruptions.
A shorter shopping window was another drag. U.S. federal law sets Thanksgiving as the fourth Thursday of November each year. This year, Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 27, later than the usual around the 21st–23rd. The year-end shopping season through Christmas is shorter by about six days. Typically, this period accounts for one-third of annual profits for retailers. Large retailers such as Walmart and Amazon started promotions earlier than usual in light of this. Walmart began early discounts in three phases starting Nov. 11. Amazon kicked off its Black Friday week events starting on the 21st, similar to prior years. But most assessments say the effect is fleeting and insufficient to reverse the broader consumption slowdown.
Financial institutions diagnosed the current U.S. consumer market as one where "people still have the capacity to spend, but little appetite to do so." Bank of America (BoA) data show that regardless of income level, U.S. household deposit balances remain above 2019, before the pandemic. In other words, consumers are not in such dire straits that they have to dip into their savings.
Mark Mathews, chief economist at the NRF, said, "The U.S. household balance sheet remains healthy," but added, "The problem is that consumer sentiment is very fragile." He said, "Consumers have no issues on the fundamentals front, but they are emotionally discouraged and are reluctant to increase expenditure."
Consumption is the pillar that supports 70% of the U.S. economy. If the pullback in spending persists, a vicious cycle of weaker corporate earnings and slower hiring could follow. That would darken the outlook. There is a lag before the Trump administration's stimulus measures translate into actual household income gains. For the time being, the view is strengthening that consumers will be slow to open their wallets amid the triple burden of high inflation, high interest rates and tariff risks.
Some large retailers such as Walmart are seeking a breakthrough with aggressive price cuts. Walmart rolled out a few striking doorbusters, including an 85-inch TCL Roku TV originally priced at $678 for $498. But experts said this strategy is limited to a handful of deep-pocketed giants. Most retailers are tightening their belts to survive.
The NRF said this year's Black Friday is a symbolic event revealing polarized consumption. Behind the dazzling neon signs and bustling crowds looms the harsh reality of America's working-class economy, where shoppers put items back after doing the math.