The United States, Ukraine, and Europe are locked in a tense tug-of-war in Geneva, Switzerland, over a "Ukraine peace plan." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been "tremendous progress," and the once frigid mood in the talks has shifted rapidly over time. But the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations are still said to be waging a nerve-racking standoff over core issues such as the size of the forces, territorial questions, and how to handle Russia's frozen assets.
According to Reuters, the BBC, and other foreign media on the 24th local time, the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations met at the U.S. mission in Geneva on the 23rd and held marathon talks over a 28-point peace plan proposed by President Trump. Shortly after the meeting, Minister Rubio told reporters, "We made tremendous progress in discussions to finalize a Ukraine peace agreement," and "some issues are close to resolution."
The mood at the start of the talks was icy. Just before the meeting, President Trump criticized Ukraine's leadership on social media, saying they know nothing about "gratitude" for U.S. efforts to end the war.
President Zelensky quickly countered the criticism and reversed the mood. He immediately wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "We are deeply grateful for the support of the United States and President Trump," striking a humble tone. He added, "Peace must be dignified."
The atmosphere then pivoted sharply. Minister Rubio, after a phone call with President Trump, said, "The president is quite pleased with the current progress." President Zelensky also provided outside backing for the talks, saying, "There is a growing consensus that Ukraine's national interests and perspective can be reflected in the U.S. proposal."
The biggest sticking point is the scale of limits on Ukraine's military. According to a document obtained by Reuters, the U.S. draft includes a cap of 600,000 troops for the Ukrainian military. The rationale is that reducing military power is necessary to dispel concerns that Ukraine could again clash with Russia.
Europe and Ukraine say they cannot accept this. The European delegation countered with its own revision to maintain 800,000 in peacetime. That is 200,000 more than the U.S. plan. Underlying this is Europe's realistic view that U.S. security assurances alone are effectively insufficient to deter a renewed Russian invasion.
Territorial issues are also among the key points of contention. The Trump plan demands that Ukraine concede the entire eastern Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk) region to Russia, effectively forcing a territorial cession. Europe, by contrast, argued, "Territorial exchange talks should begin based on the current front line," rejecting a total cession of Donbas.
The arithmetic over postwar reconstruction expenses is even more complex. The United States proposed using $100 billion of Russia's frozen assets in the West for Ukraine's reconstruction and investment projects, with 50% of the resulting revenue going to the United States. It is a thoroughly businesslike approach.
Europe, on the other hand, made clear its opposition to the U.S. revenue-sharing proposal, saying, "Keep the assets locked until Russia completes war reparations, and use those assets entirely for Ukraine's reconstruction expenses."
On Ukraine's North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership, the mood appears to be settling on a "no accession" track for now. Instead, the United States and Europe are seeking a compromise by preparing separate security guarantees similar to NATO's collective defense.
The European side ruled out permanently stationing NATO forces in Ukraine. Instead, it proposed deploying NATO fighter jets in Poland to secure indirect deterrence. Minister Rubio also hinted that security issues are under discussion, saying, "Making Ukraine feel safe is an essential condition for ending the war."
Andrii Yermak, the presidential chief of staff leading the Ukrainian delegation, said, "Our U.S. partners worked closely to understand our concerns," and assessed, "We are moving toward a just and lasting peace."
President Trump set the negotiation deadline for the 27th, ahead of Thanksgiving. But concerns remain that the table could be flipped at any time, given Trump's unpredictable negotiation style.
Reuters, citing a diplomatic contact, assessed, "In the end, the key depends on what political decision Zelensky makes between territory and security."