Scott Bessent U.S. Minister of the Treasury dismissed concerns that the U.S. economy will slip into recession starting next year, offering the outlook that "the economy next year is very optimistic."
Minister Bessent appeared on NBC's flagship public affairs program "Meet the Press" on the 23rd (local time) and answered "No" firmly to host Kristen Welker's question, "Is there a risk that the entire economy will fall into recession?"
Minister Bessent said he is "very, very optimistic about 2026," adding, "We have set the table for strong, noninflationary economic growth." The table for economic growth he mentioned refers to the so-called "One Big, Beautiful Bill," enacted in Jul. The bill, led by the Trump administration, includes broad tax cuts and deregulation measures such as a deduction for automobile loan interest income.
Minister Bessent said, "Thanks to this bill, there will be sizable refunds to working households in the first quarter of 2026," adding, "Americans' real incomes will rise, and that will soon lead to stronger consumption." He went on to add, "The various trade deals and peace agreements that President Trump has pursued will also be the foundation for economic growth."
Kevin Hassett, Chairperson of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), also bolstered Minister Bessent's optimism in a Fox News interview the same day, saying, "Next year will be an absolute blockbuster year."
However, Minister Bessent did not go so far as to deny that there are some difficult aspects in the current U.S. economy. He said, "It's clear the housing sector is struggling," and "Some interest rate–sensitive sectors are already in recession." It amounted to acknowledging that the prolonged high interest rates are leaving scars across the real economy. However, he drew a line, saying, "These partial recessions will not spread into an economy-wide crisis."
He also offered an active explanation on inflation and tariffs. Minister Bessent recently identified the services institutional sector, such as labor costs, as the main culprit behind rising prices. He said, "If you look at the data, inflation in imported goods is essentially flat," and argued, "What rose is due to the services institutional sector, and it has nothing to do with tariffs."
He also pushed back against the suggestion that the Trump administration's recent repeal of tariffs on more than 200 food items, including coffee, tea and beef, amounts to an admission of "tariff failure." Minister Bessent said, "This is the result of trade negotiations we have been conducting with Latin American countries over the past six to eight months," explaining, "We did not roll back tariffs because of inflation." He cited the fact that those food items are mainly imported from Latin America and Central America.
The interview also put on the table the shutdown (temporary work stoppage) problem, a chronic ailment of Washington politics. Minister Bessent said the government shutdown that occurred this year caused economic damage amounting to 1.5% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
Minister Bessent also signaled that the government will make a major announcement on lowering health insurance premiums this week. He said, "We believe healthcare expenses will go down," hinting at additional livelihood stabilization measures by the Trump administration.
The interview came right after Republicans struggled in the recent New York mayoral election and some gubernatorial races. With rising living expenses cited as the main cause of the electoral defeats, it is seen as an attempt by the head of the U.S. economy to directly calm anxiety.