Because of remarks by Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about a "Taiwan contingency" (emergency such as war or an incident), 172 Japanese corporations that exported sea cucumbers, scallops and other products to China have been found to be in the direct impact zone.
According to the Yomiuri Shimbun on the 24th, Teikoku Databank, a private Japanese credit research agency, analyzed and released the status of Japanese corporations that would be affected by China's suspension of imports immediately after Takaichi's remarks. The analysis found that as of last month, a total of 9,250 Japanese corporations were exporting products to China. Of these, 172 corporations, or 1.9%, related to production, processing and sales of seafood that could suffer direct damage from this measure were identified.
By the numbers alone, it does not reach even 2% of all corporations exporting to China. However, most of these corporations are known to specialize in premium ingredients favored by Chinese consumers, such as dried sea cucumbers, scallops and pollock. In particular, many are regional specialty businesses that support local economies such as Hokkaido, so the ripple effect on those regional economies will likely be greater than the figures suggest, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported.
What offers some relief is that Japanese corporations developed resilience after experiencing the 2023 seafood trade war. According to Teikoku Databank's analysis, Japanese seafood corporations have made every effort over the past two years to reduce dependence on China.
In the past, Japanese scallops were exported to China in the shell, then processed (shells removed) at Chinese factories and re-exported to the United States or Europe. But as exports to China were blocked, Japanese corporations moved their processing bases to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand. They also bet on diversifying sales channels by increasing the share of direct exports to the United States and Europe and by boosting consumption in Japan's domestic market.
Experts predicted that thanks to this China Plus One strategy (securing alternative markets outside China), the shock this time will be less than two years ago.
In its analysis report, Teikoku Databank said, "There is a possibility that corporations will not suffer a major shock as they did when imports were banned in 2023 (due to market diversification, etc.)." It explained that since they have already treated China risk as a constant and built management strategies accordingly, it is unlikely to lead to immediate bankruptcies or closures.