With Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman set to visit the United States in a day, U.S. President Donald Trump signaled his intent to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. However, the F-35 sale could alter the military balance in the Middle East, raising concerns among stakeholders.
On the 17th (local time), when asked by reporters about selling F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, President Trump said, "That's what we're going to do," adding, "We are going to sell the F-35." Crown Prince bin Salman is the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia and is expected to meet President Trump at the White House on the 18th to sign economic and defense agreements.
Plans reportedly being pursued by Crown Prince bin Salman include: ▲ purchasing U.S.-made F-35s ▲ formalizing U.S. defense commitments ▲ investing in U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure ▲ expanding cooperation on civilian nuclear power plants.
Still, some have voiced concern about Trump's decision, noting that the F-35 is the most sensitive advanced fighter among U.S.-made weapons. The F-35 is a fifth-generation stealth fighter with reconnaissance, information-sharing, and drone-swarm command capabilities, nicknamed "quarterback in the sky" and "invisible fighter." It specializes in long-range precision strikes and suppression of air defenses, and played a key role when Israel engaged Iran for about 12 days in June.
According to the defense industry, the fighter can carry up to two tactical nuclear weapons in the form of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM), alongside three types of U.S. strategic bombers (B-1B, B-52, B-2).
But U.S. approval procedures are not simple. Earlier, the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia were said to be in final coordination after a sale of 48 F-35s cleared key reviews at the Ministry of National Defense, but the process could be delayed if the U.S. Congress puts the export license on hold.
In particular, selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia is likely to trigger sharp debate because it could violate Israel's "qualitative military edge (QME)." To date, the United States has sold F-35s in the Middle East only to Israel, because U.S. law guarantees Israel's "Qualitative Military Edge (QME)." In this situation, if Saudi Arabia takes delivery of F-35s, Israel's relative advantage is highly likely to weaken.
There are also significant concerns about technology leakage. In 2019, the United States removed Türkiye from the F-35 program because it purchased the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system. The reasoning was that operating the F-35 and S-400 simultaneously could allow the Russian military to detect vulnerabilities in the F-35 airframe. Even if a sale is concluded, some analysts say the F-35s delivered to Saudi Arabia could have certain capabilities restricted compared with the model used by U.S. forces.
The Israeli government has so far shown a restrained response. In a recent interview, Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter said there were no signs the qualitative edge would be compromised, and former Air Force Chief of Staff Eitan Ben Eliyahu said, "It will take at least four years until actual delivery," noting, "In the meantime, we could secure more advanced weapons and maintain our edge." In fact, the F-35 currently has a production backlog exceeding 1,000 aircraft across 19 countries, so it is estimated that delivery will take several years even after a contract is signed.
The contract could also fall through as delivery is delayed. Earlier, during his first term in November 2020, President Trump announced the sale of 50 F-35s to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but the sale was halted when former U.S. President Joe Biden took office in 2021.