A fear of beef-flation is sweeping dining tables around the world, including not only the West such as the United States, Britain, and Germany, but also China. The climate crisis, the worst supply collapse in 75 years, and political factors are entwined, pushing global beef prices into an uncontrollable state. Beef prices are soaring sharply even in countries famed for beef production, such as the United States, Australia, and Brazil.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), on the 15th local time, the slaughterhouse transaction price for live cattle in the United States jumped 30% over the past year. The slaughterhouse price is the price for the whole carcass of one head of cattle. From there, it is divided into different cuts.
The brisket cut, which Americans mainly buy for barbecue, surged more than 83%, from $3 per pound last year to $5.50 this year. The average retail price of ground beef, used in many dishes, rose 13% in a year. That far exceeds the overall inflation rate of about 3%. Citing experts, the WSJ said, "Beef is cited as a major driver of household cost-of-living increases in the United States, alongside key groceries such as bananas and coffee."
The rise in beef prices will not end this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its beef price outlook for the second half of this year and next year by up to 9%. It especially predicted that the price of the popular loin cut will hit a record high.
Europe and Britain are no different. According to a market report by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, the slaughterhouse transaction price for live cattle in Britain has climbed 34.5% so far this year from the start of the year. Retail channel prices have risen as much as 39% this year, depending on the cut.
Following the United States, Brazil, the world's No. 2 beef producer, also saw export prices jump 22% in the first half of this year. As domestic market selling prices rose, export prices climbed in tandem. China, which follows the United States and Brazil, is further fueling the global price surge as its beef imports in the first half of this year jumped 24% from a year earlier.
The frightening outlook is backed by concrete figures. In Australia, the world's No. 4 beef producer, prominent analyst Simon Quilty predicted, "Australian beef prices will double from now by Oct. next year."
The core cause is a record supply collapse. As the number of cattle raised falls, the beef supply itself is crumbling. According to CNBC, the cattle inventory in the United States this year fell to the lowest level in 75 years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the U.S. cattle inventory this year to drop to 86 million head, the lowest since 1951. It is the worst supply crunch in about 75 years.
It usually takes about 18 to 30 months to raise one head of cattle for meat. When beef prices in the market rise quickly, ranchers hold onto young heifers for breeding instead of sending them to slaughterhouses. It is a management approach to stabilize supply by rebuilding the herd and keeping cows that can calve as long as possible. This is effective for herd recovery in the long term, but in the short term it slows the pace at which high-quality beef reaches the market.
Derrell Peel, an economics professor at Oklahoma State University, said, "Herd rebuilding is a long and slow process," adding, "Given the biological reproduction cycle of cattle, there is little chance that beef production will increase next year or even in 2027." It is a bleak assessment that normalization of beef supply may not be possible until 2028–2029.
On top of that, years of extreme weather swings have shaken the global foundation for cattle raising. Extreme weather directly burdens feed costs, which make up a major share of raising expense, and the costs of using farm machinery for irrigation, among others. Citing the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Britain's Sky News said, "Unlike crops such as corn, livestock are slow to recover from climate shocks, and considering facilities for slaughter and other processing, it is difficult to move production far from demand," adding, "The climate crisis has created structural vulnerabilities in the beef supply chain beyond one-off damage."