Speculation about the health of Russia's Vladimir Putin, 73, who has led the country for 25 years since taking power in 2000, has resurfaced. Since the war in Ukraine, the unrelenting controversy over Putin's health has gone beyond mere curiosity to become a key variable directly tied to Russia's power structure. The Kremlin dismisses it each time as "fake news," but the doubts are not easily quelled.
On the 10th (local time), Newsweek and others pointed out that at an event in a gym in Samara, Russia, on the 6th, Putin stood by a basketball court and gave a speech with his fist held awkwardly, analyzing that "his right hand looks swollen and painful, with veins protruding markedly." Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to the Ukraine Interior Minister, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that "Putin's hand looks as if it is bloodied up to the elbow, and the veins are excessively bulging."
For several years, unusual signs such as black spots on the hand and what appeared to be marks from intravenous injections have been observed. Long-term and gradual finger numbness or abnormal joint movement, and hand swelling are representative signs of neurological diseases such as Parkinson's. Parkinson's is the illness Muhammad Ali suffered from, in which motor function slowly deteriorates. Simon Lewis, a professor at Imperial College School of Medicine in London, said in a BBC interview that regarding Putin's symptoms, "it is likely a natural sign such as vein protrusion due to aging or elevated blood pressure, but repetitive rigidity or tremors can be a signal of a neurological disease."
Doubts about Putin's health have been raised consistently since he took power, intertwined with a one-man dictatorship, and have surged since the invasion of Ukraine. Many of the suspicions have been amplified by the Ukrainian side or on social media. However, as in this case, instances that are actually caught on camera or noticeable to people are increasing.
For example, in April 2022, shortly after the invasion, during a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Putin gripped the corner of the table tightly for the entire 12 minutes. His foot also shook continuously, seemingly with anxiety. Because of this, suspicions spread that it was an early symptom of Parkinson's. In Oct. 2023, British outlets reported that Putin was found in his bedroom in a state of cardiac arrest and received cardiopulmonary resuscitation.
Last year as well, in October, during a visit to a Russian military unit, a black spot suspected to be a mark from an intravenous injection was caught on the back of his hand. Immediately after that, in November, he did not appear in public for two weeks, prompting even hospitalization rumors.
Each time, the Kremlin has issued immediate and strong denials, repeating that it is "not true at all." This time too, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned against overinterpretation, saying, "President Putin's health is excellent."
Putin himself has revealed a strong desire for health and life extension. Meeting China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing in September, he said, "Human organs can continue to be transplanted. The longer you live, the younger you become," and added, "In the past, people rarely lived to 70, but these days 70 is nothing but a child. Innovative technology will let us live to 150." The remarks later appeared to have been deleted or edited in Russian state media reports, fueling controversy.
The image of a "strong leader" is a core foundation that grants legitimacy to the Putin regime. Health rumors are an attempt to shake this foundation. For this reason, whenever health speculation surfaces regardless of his intentions, it becomes a geopolitical risk that rattles the entire world order. Experts assessed that the Russian government regards suspicions about Putin's health as part of an information war waged by the West and Ukraine.
Putin has built a one-man absolute power system over the past 25 years. If Putin were to suddenly become incapacitated, the power structure of nuclear-armed Russia would likely fall into massive chaos.
Article 92, Paragraph 3 of the Russian Constitution stipulates that when the president is unable to perform duties, the prime minister shall act as president for 90 days. By law, current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would automatically succeed to power. However, Prime Minister Mishustin is a technocrat without an independent political base. Time magazine, citing experts, projected that if Putin disappears, an intense power struggle would erupt among hard-line elite groups from powerful organizations such as the Russian military, the Federal Security Service (FSB), and the judiciary. In the process, not only Russia's domestic affairs but also the course of the war in Ukraine could spiral into an unpredictable phase.