As Iran faces its worst drought in 100 years, the situation has worsened to the point that the Iranian government is even considering evacuating 15 million residents of the capital, Tehran. Water supply in Tehran was cut off on the 8th, and in the second-largest city, Mashhad, the water level at key dams has also fallen below 3%. Foreign media reported that the Iranian government is in a state of "water bankruptcy."
On the 10th local time, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned, "In the worst case, 15 million Tehran residents may have to leave the city." Pezeshkian said, "There is really no water left in Tehran," and noted, "If we do not take emergency measures right now, soon we will face a situation where no solution can be found."
Iran, with its high inland basins and rugged mountain terrain, has suffered from chronic water shortages for decades. But the recent situation goes beyond a simple drought to the level of a disaster. This fall in Tehran, not a single drop of rain fell for the first time in 100 years. Iran's meteorological authorities said there is no meaningful rainfall in the forecast for the next 10 days.
Local outlets reported that the megacity of Tehran, with a population of more than 10 million, has passed the threshold where ordinary methods such as rationing or nighttime shutoffs can address water shortages. The water level at Karaj Dam, a major source for the capital area, is below 8%. According to the New York Times (NYT), the water levels at five major dams that supply drinking water near Tehran have fallen to around 5%. The anti-Iran outlet RealClearWorld (RCW), citing local experts, reported that the water level at Tehran's dams is 14%, and that the Lar Dam, considered the most important, has fallen to 1%. In the Middle East, where sand and other impurities are prevalent, once a dam's water level drops into the single digits, it is treated as dead water that cannot be used.
The situation is even more serious in Mashhad, the second-largest city with a population reaching 4 million. It receives water from four nearby dams, but the total water level has fallen below 3%. This year's precipitation is 0.4 millimeters, down 98.6% from last year's 27–28 millimeters. Across Iran, 19 major dams are effectively depleted, and more than 40 cities are implementing limited water rations and shutoffs. On some Iranian social media, there is even a conspiracy theory that, to securitize water resources, hostile neighboring countries are stealing Iran's rain clouds ("cloud stealing"). Iran's meteorological authorities dismissed it as "scientifically impossible," a sign of how unsettled public sentiment is.
Iranian Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said in a BBC interview that the current crisis is not only due to a lack of rainfall. He said the 12-day war with Israel in June this year, combined with the aging of water pipe infrastructure more than 100 years old, has left the country in a state of water bankruptcy.
On June 15, the Israeli Air Force struck the Tajrish area in northern Tehran, where Iran's military command is concentrated. The attack not only breached Tehran's air defense network but also destroyed key water supply facilities, causing massive flooding. The facilities destroyed at that time have not been properly restored over the past five months.
Amid the paralysis of the water supply network, leaks in water and sewage pipes more than 100 years old have worsened the problem. Minister Aliabadi said, "Aging water pipes have intensified the water crisis." The Iranian government is currently taking a desperate measure of lowering water pressure from midnight to morning, supplying only small amounts of water even in cities that still have reservoir stocks, to prevent pipeline collapses.
Experts, however, said this water shortage is less a natural disaster than the result of decades of unregulated groundwater extraction, political neglect, and short-term projects driven by private interests. Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University (UNU) Institute for Water, Environment and Health, said in a Fox interview, "In Iran, water scarcity is the result of decades of policy failure," adding, "In academia, we have warned the Iranian government for years that this situation would come."
According to Iran's reform-leaning newspapers, Khatam al-Anbiya, a construction company owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), indiscriminately built dams without environmental assessments. The IRGC is an organization separate from Iran's regular military that safeguards the Islamic theocracy and is responsible for security inside and outside Iran. It wields significant political, military and economic influence across Iranian society, asserting power so strong it is called a "government above the government." Because it is shielded by the supreme leader, it exerts formidable influence not only in the military but also in economic areas such as construction.
As part of granting favors to corporations connected to the regime, they diverted water to industrial complexes run by these companies. They also appointed a large number of unqualified bureaucrats linked to the Revolutionary Guard to senior posts at the construction firm and indiscriminately pushed large projects that could drain groundwater. At the same time, amid huge fiscal deficits, the Iranian government poured money into supporting Middle Eastern armed groups such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Syria's Assad regime, Yemen's Houthi rebels, and Gaza's Hamas, and into developing its nuclear program, instead of investing funds to upgrade water facilities.
According to the NYT, Tehran's ground subsides by 300 millimeters each year. The indiscriminate development of groundwater has worsened land subsidence. As the situation deteriorated, President Pezeshkian formalized a plan to move the capital to the southern Makran coast. Makran is a strategic point bordering the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. But critics say the Iranian government, suffering from fiscal deficits, cannot afford the relocation cost alone of at least $77 billion to $100 billion (about 106 trillion to 138 trillion won). RCW pointed out that the Makran area also faces sea level rise and water shortages.
Ali Moridi, a professor at Shahid Abbaspour University, warned, "If the current situation continues, the entire central Iranian plateau could become a depopulated zone."