As the leaders' summit of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) opens, major South American countries are taking opposite paths on fossil fuel development. Brazil is seeking to secure policy funding through oil drilling, while Colombia is pursuing environmental protection through a radical decarbonization policy, putting the two on completely different tracks.
On the 6th (local time), the Financial Times (FT) profiled the two national leaders and reported that major South American countries are choosing diverging courses on the energy transition. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, who has cemented his standing as a so-called "environmental president," stirred controversy by approving development at the mouth of the Amazon, while Colombia's Gustavo Petro, by contrast, halted fossil fuel production altogether and declared a shift to an economy centered on eco-friendly agriculture.
Since returning to office in 2023, Lula cut Amazon deforestation rates sharply and built an image as a "climate leader," but he was seen as shifting course by recently approving state oil company Petrobras's Amazon development. Brazil's environmental agency had earlier returned Petrobras's drilling application, saying the environmental impact assessment was inadequate, but that decision was ultimately reversed. On this, Lula said, "As long as the world still needs oil, Brazil will not abandon the wealth that can improve people's lives."
In practice, Brazil is seeking national revitalization through fossil fuels. The Lula administration has expressed ambition to raise daily crude output to 5.4 million barrels by 2029 and become the world's No. 4 oil producer. The plan is to reinvest this in green industries and gradually reduce carbon emissions. Alexandre Silveira, Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy, said, "We already produce 90% of our power from renewables such as hydropower and lead the world in biofuels," adding, "Industrialized rich countries must make greater financial contributions for a 'just transition.'"
Colombia, by contrast, has declared itself a so-called "post-oil nation," pursuing the most radical environmental policy among Latin American countries. President Petro of Colombia halted all new oil and gas exploration immediately after taking office in 2022, raised corporate taxes on fossil fuel corporations, and has pushed to foster tourism and eco-friendly agriculture. Petro has declared that he will make Colombia a "world power of life."
However, as foreign investors pull out en masse, Colombia's economy is showing signs of a sharp downturn. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Colombia's growth rate was 0.7% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2024, and with global corporations such as Chevron and ExxonMobil exiting, the country faces a steep drop in key tax revenues. The Colombian economic think tank Fedesarrollo said, "By pushing corporations out, the government has paradoxically left itself unable to fund the energy transition."
Experts say the "Brazil-style model," which maintains a fossil fuel–based economy while simultaneously transitioning to renewables, is more competitive. Many developing countries, including Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia, are following this approach, and the paths they choose are expected to influence global climate policy.
Luisa Carvajos, a researcher at Columbia University, said, "The greatest strength of the Brazil-style model is sustainability," noting, "A vast experiment is underway to shift industry from high to low carbon."