As expectations grow that progressive-leaning Zohran Mamdani will become New York mayor, Miami's real estate market is stirring. With projections that wealthy New Yorkers will head to Florida to avoid high tax rates and left-wing policies, Miami's luxury property sector is anticipating the so-called "Mamdani effect." However, statistical data has yet to support these projections.
On the 3rd (local time), the Financial Times (FT) in the United Kingdom reported that Miami luxury developer Isaac Toledano said he is "carrying out luxury condo developments such as the Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Palm Beach, a favorite of wealthy Americans," and that "over the past four months, we have signed contracts worth more than $100 million (about 135 billion won) with New York residents." Cracking a joke that "most people in Florida would give Mamdani the broker of the year award," he predicted that if Mamdani wins the general election, wealthy New Yorkers will move to Miami in large numbers.
The possibility that New York's high earners will leave due to the emergence of a progressive mayor had been raised even before Mamdani notched an unexpected win in the primary. Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square and known as a "hedge fund heavyweight," warned that "if Mamdani takes power, many corporations and individuals will move to Florida." The real estate brokerage industry cites Mamdani's pledge to raise the corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5% and to toughen millionaire taxation as factors that could drive the wealthy away.
Edgardo Defortuna, chief executive officer (CEO) of Fortune Group, a Miami luxury real estate developer, said "a client in New York secured a second home in Miami in case Mamdani becomes mayor." At a recent real estate expo in Mexico City, Mexico, he said, "Expectations of inflows of wealthy New Yorkers are also influencing the investment sentiment of buyers from Latin America."
Miami real estate agents are not missing this opportunity. Sharon Nabutony, executive vice president for new developments at Douglas Elliman, a luxury residential brokerage, said "Miami brokerages are ramping up marketing aimed at New York clients." Leveraging the psychology that wealthy New Yorkers are seeking a "safe haven," they are promoting low taxes, warm weather, and a business-friendly environment.
But experts say the "Mamdani effect" is likely a phenomenon based more on expectations than actual demand. Arias at CoStar said, "With international net migration in South Florida slowing, brokers want to craft a positive story for the market." Kirsten Jordan, an agent at Corcoran, a New York luxury real estate brokerage, also noted, "The reaction was strong when Mamdani won the primary, but now the mood is to wait and see."
The statistics also show little change. According to Realtor.com chief economist Jake Krimmel, the number of Manhattan residents in New York viewing South Florida dwellings fell 5% year over year in the third quarter. Zillow likewise said the share of Miami listing views by New York users slipped slightly in September, from 7.5% to 7.3%.
Juan Arias, head of U.S. industry analytics at real estate data company CoStar, analyzed that "there may be some migration from New York to Florida, but the scale will be minimal."